Bronny James’ NBA future: Should he declare this year or is it best to wait?

Editor’s note: On April 5, Bronny James declared for the NBA Draft while remaining in the NCAA’s transfer portal. This story about James’ future prospects was written in February.

There is little consensus among NBA scouts and executives on where Bronny James — eldest son of LeBron James — will wind up going in the 2024 draft, or if he should even be in it. 

What they do agree on is what kind of NBA player he will be, whenever he gets there: a solid, smart, defensive-minded guard who can make open shots. He is a classic 3-and-D guard. It’s almost as if his dad raised him to be the type of player he could benefit from having by his side as he winds down his career.

“I’ve seen him a lot,” one Western Conference executive told FOX Sports. “He’s going to be a real solid NBA player. He’ll play in the league for 8–10 years. He’s not a superstar by any stretch of the imagination. 

“Everybody wants him to be LeBron, and he’s never going to be LeBron. But he is a good team guy and he can defend and make shots. He’s a decent ball handler. He’s a solid player and a great kid.”

But when will that be? Or, more specifically, when should that be?

Bronny went into cardiac arrest during a practice on July 24, which prohibited him from basketball activities for nearly five months, delaying the start of his college career. He made his debut Dec. 10 against Long Beach State and came off the bench in his first eight appearances. A hand injury to fellow freshman guard Isaiah Collier resulted in Bronny’s first start back on Jan. 14. He played 25 inauspicious minutes, going scoreless with one assist and two rebounds in a 68-58 loss to Colorado.

“Rough start,” said one NBA scout who was on hand. 

With Collier out, Bronny has remained in the starting lineup and has improved, at least statistically. He posted 11 points, six assists and five rebounds in an 82-67 loss to Arizona on Jan. 17, and followed that up with seven points, five assists and four rebounds in an 82-67 loss to Arizona State. However, following a loss to crosstown rival UCLA this past weekend, the Trojans are now 8-12 overall and have yet to win a game with James in the starting lineup. Their next game is at 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, when they host Pac-12 foe Oregon.

Several scouts and executives have suggested Bronny would be best served spending at least another year in college. But that would mean his dad would have to wait another year to fulfill his publicly-stated dream of playing with his oldest son in the NBA.

“I’ve seen him live and on tape,” an Eastern Conference assistant GM said. “I’ve always liked Bronny as a role player. He’s not the type of player that would typically be one-and-done or highly ranked. He defends, moves the ball, can shoot some. It was very unfortunate that he missed five months. After missing that time and not being able to practice or work out, he’s definitely a multi-year guy. I hope he’s patient and doesn’t get rushed by the hype, or his dad.”

LeBron does not appear to agree. A week before Bronny’s first start, James suggested it was time for his eldest son to enter the starting lineup, adding that he was already an NBA-level player. “He could play for us right now,” James told the Lakers’ media. “Easy.”

“Fathers are not objective about their sons,” one Western Conference scout said. However, the Western Conference executive agreed with the elder James when it comes to Bronny being an NBA-level player – to some extent.

“That’s not completely out of bounds,” the executive said. “I mean, when he says ‘play for them,’ he doesn’t mean, ‘Hey, he could start on our team and average 15 points per game.’ I doubt if Bronny is ever going to average 15 a game in the league. But what he can do is help a team because he’s a smart player and a really good player. He’ll make open shots. If you’re going to give him open shots, he’ll make ‘em.”

One Eastern Conference GM who has also seen Bronny play in person believes he would benefit from more time and playing a bigger role at the collegiate level first.

“He’s not a point guard,” the GM said. “He’s more of a combo [guard]. He must develop into more of a shooter and scorer. He’s a willing passer. He tries to play the right way. He has tons of pop, athletically. But he needs reps. He sat out a long time. Reps build confidence. He needs to have success again. It takes time to find your way. I’m no psychologist, but he looks uncertain at times.”

An Eastern Conference executive agreed, suggesting that Bronny’s size for the NBA — listed as 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds — demands that he hone his point guard skills. 

“He’s an athletic but undersized combo guard with a high basketball-IQ, good passing skills and a high motor,” the executive said. “He’s an improving spot shooter who will make a more immediate impact as an on-ball defender against point guards. He needs to stay in school for another year and play point guard full time after Isiah Collier leaves.”

That should be after this season. Several NBA mock drafts have Coller listed as an early- or mid-first-round candidate, with one even projecting him going No. 1 overall.

Prior to Bronny’s cardiac arrest, several mock drafts had LeBron’s oldest son projected as a mid-first-round pick, but at least some of that conjecture was fueled by the idea that drafting Bronny would, in essence, be acquiring LeBron, who can opt out of his contract with the Lakers at the end of this season. Now, many reputable mock drafts have Bronny going undrafted. 

The Western Conference scout suggested using a first-round pick to acquire the James tandem would still be worth it to a host of title-contending teams. He specifically mentioned the Timberwolves, Knicks, Pelicans, Heat, 76ers, Warriors and Cavaliers as potential landing spots.

“If Bronny’s name was anyone else’s, he would be an average to above-average second-round prospect,” the scout said. “He needs to be a combo guard. He’s an undersized wing. A good shooter, but not special. A good athlete, but just short of elite. But if Junior delivers Senior, then he’s a first-rounder and maybe a lottery pick. Any contending team that will share the ball and mitigate his load would benefit. No risk, no reward. Two years of the diva [LeBron] to push for a championship? Where do I sign up?”

He did have one caveat: LeBron would have to sign “as an unrestricted free agent on a discount contract.”

That, the Western Conference executive suggested, is a deal-breaker. While he projected Bronny going anywhere from the mid-first round to the middle of the second round, he dismissed the idea of any team other than the Lakers drafting him, in large part because he doesn’t see LeBron playing on a drastically reduced salary or leaving Los Angeles.

“The last jersey LeBron will put on will be a Laker jersey,” the executive predicted. “Can LeBron put pressure on the Lakers, and does it make sense for them to spend $5 million on a three-year deal for Bronny so that LeBron is content? Yeah, of course it does. To me, it makes sense. 

“Nobody’s going to draft Bronny and say, ‘OK, now we’ll get LeBron.’ Because LeBron can say whatever he wants, he’s not playing for a below-market-value contract, OK? I know the guy’s got over a billion dollars, but I can’t see him playing for anybody else. LeBron’s not going anywhere.”

The Eastern Conference executive dismissed the idea of Bronny being a first-round pick. It’s also important to note that the Lakers do not currently have a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

“If he enters this draft, he’s likely in the early to mid second-round conversations,” the executive said. “He’s certainly not good enough to use a first on, to get a chance to add a 40-year-old LeBron. LeBron will just bully [Lakers GM Rob] Pelinka into finding a second-round pick for him.”

What has impressed scouts and executives as much as anything is how Bronny has handled the outside attention. By all accounts, he has not allowed his dad’s fame or expectations to impact his attitude while playing for USC.

“The thing people have got to understand is that he’s a really good kid,” the Western Conference executive said. “He likes being with his teammates and he plays the right way. That’s why I think he’ll be in the league a long time. I’m not saying how good a player he is going to be. I don’t know that. But he’s going to be around for a while.”

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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