Caitlin Clark’s chase for history among top storylines in college basketball

As the NFL season comes to a close and the calendar flips from January to February, the focus of the sports world shifts to college basketball, where we are in the midst of a wild, fun-filled, action-packed campaign.

On the women’s side, Caitlin Clark continues her quest to become the all-time leading scorer in NCAA women’s basketball history. Iowa’s superstar guard is now sitting at 3,424 career points, 104 away from breaking Kelsey Plum’s record-setting mark. Meanwhile, South Carolina is currently sitting at 19-0, looking to complete an undefeated season and reach the program’s fourth consecutive Final Four.

[Caitlin Clark becomes No. 2 all-time scorer, needs 104 points for record]

In men’s action, Zach Edey continues to shatter records in his pursuit of becoming the first player in NCAA men’s Division I history to win the Naismith Player of the Year Award in consecutive seasons since Ralph Sampson won it three years in a row from 1981-83. 

While Edey has helped guide Purdue to an impressive 20-2 start and the No. 2 ranking in the latest AP Top 25 poll, it’s the top-ranked UConn Huskies who have been on top of the college basketball world. The defending national champions have won nine in a row and currently sit at 19-2 overall and 9-1 in Big East action.

With so many intriguing storylines throughout both men’s and women’s hoops, FOX Sports college basketball experts Michael Cohen and Laken Litman are here to break it all down and offer their thoughts on Clark’s quest for the scoring record, as well as answering some big-picture questions as we enter February.

Which men’s college basketball team has surprised you the most through the first 12 weeks of the season?

Michael Cohen: Wisconsin continues to defy expectations as the calendar turns from January to February. Picked fifth in the preseason Big Ten media poll and unranked in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches poll, the Badgers are now 16-4 overall (8-1 Big Ten) and sit atop the conference standings with one fewer loss than Purdue. Barring a late-season dip between now and the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin has a chance for its best finish in nine years under head coach Greg Gard, whose 2021-22 squad entered postseason play 24-6 overall and 15-5 in the league.

Even more impressive than the big-picture résumé is the shift in playing style that has pushed the Badgers to No. 6 in the latest AP poll. Traditionally known as a grinding, defensive-minded outfit ever since Gard replaced predecessor Bo Ryan, this year’s squad has axed that reputation by burying teams on the offensive end of the floor. Wisconsin ranks fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency after finishing 140th last season and posting an average rank of 67th during Gard’s first eight years. Much of that can be attributed to the arrival of St. John’s transfer AJ Storr, an Illinois native who returned to Big Ten country after one season in Queens. He averaged 8.8 points in 21 minutes per game for the Red Storm in 2022-23 and now leads the Badgers in scoring at 15.9 points per game. Storr shoots the ball on 33.6% of possessions when he’s on the floor, according to KenPom, and has quickly become one of the most impactful transfers in the country. 

Laken Litman: Iowa State – yes, Iowa State – is playing some of the best basketball in the country. The No. 12 Cyclones are 13-0 at home, which includes wins over then-No. 2 Houston and No. 7 Kansas. They also beat No. 25 TCU in Fort Worth a few weeks ago, giving them three top-25 wins in January. Depending on the outcome of this weekend’s matchup vs. No. 18 Baylor in Waco, the Cyclones could find themselves in the top 10 next week. And this is a team that was unranked in the preseason polls.

However, things won’t get easier for the Cyclones. The Big 12 has eight teams in the top 25, and that’s not including Arizona, which joins the conference next season. Winning the Big 12 this year is totally up for grabs. Iowa State still has to play Texas, Cincinnati and Houston (again) on the road in the coming weeks before the conference tournament. But if T.J. Otzelberger’s team can play like it did against Kansas – they got hot beyond the arc, making 14 3-pointers in the win – then they will be a tough out as March nears. In order to do that, though, Otzelberger will rely on guys like Keshon Gilbert, who averaged 14.6 points in those three top-25 wins, Tre King, who averaged 12.3, and Tamin Lipsey, who leads the team in scoring (13.9 ppg), assists (5.7) and steals (3.1) this season. 

Iowa star Caitlin Clark is now in second place on the women’s college basketball all-time scoring list and is 104 points away from breaking Kelsey Plum’s scoring record. What does this historical storyline mean for the sport of women’s college basketball, and when do you expect Clark to break the record?

Laken: For stars like Caitlin Clark, it’s all about growing the game and leaving the sport better than you found it. She has become a college basketball phenomenon, a scoring sensation and must-watch TV. Big Ten arenas fill up when Iowa comes to town. Most of all, she’s inspiring young players – both boys and girls – to feel empowered that they can do it too.

It’s hard to know exactly when Clark will surpass Kelsey Plum on the all-time scoring list. That’s a lot of pressure to put on an athlete who just wants to help her team win games. However, if she keeps up her pace of scoring 32.0 points per game, she could break the record on Feb. 15 vs. Michigan.

Michael: There are reasonable parallels to be drawn between what Clark is doing for women’s basketball and what Stephen Curry has done on the men’s side as an iconic star for the Golden State Warriors in the NBA. The lithe and wiry Curry revolutionized the sport for an entire generation of younger players with his sticky handles, limitless shooting range and supreme reliance on the 3-point shot. He has attempted 9.1 3s per game over the course of his professional career and exceeded 11 attempts per game in five of the last six seasons. Curry’s willingness to hoist shots — and make shots — from anywhere on the court has infused the game with a new dynamic at the youth, AAU and collegiate levels. 

The same can be said for Clark, who has good height for her position at 6-feet tall but whose frame is also quite lean. Nobody in the history of women’s college basketball takes and makes more difficult shots than Clark, a 38.4% career 3-point shooter who routinely pulls up from 30 or 35 feet. While Plum never attempted more than 7.7 3-pointers per game during any of her four record-breaking seasons at Washington, Clark has averaged 9.9 attempted 3s over the course of her career — a number that is surging north of 13.1 attempted 3s per game this season. It seems inevitable that the uniqueness of Clark’s style and her ever-growing star power will resonate with the next generation of women’s basketball players just like Curry’s did on the men’s side. 

As for when Clark will break the record, a nationally televised game against Nebraska on Feb. 11 seems like a decent choice. That’s one game earlier than her current mathematical pace would suggest, but if anyone can explode with a performance for the ages, it’s Clark. 

Back to the men’s side. Is there a team you could see getting hot late in the season and going on to make a deep run in March?

Michael: One team worth monitoring is Illinois following the reinstatement of star guard Terrence Shannon Jr., a preseason second-team All-America selection by FOX Sports and a unanimous preseason All-Big Ten selection. Shannon opened the season with a torrid start by scoring at least 20 points in seven of the Illini’s first 11 games, headlined by a 33-point effort in a win over then-No. 11 Florida Atlantic and a 30-point showing in a win over Missouri. After trouncing Northwestern on Jan. 2, Illinois sat at 11-2 overall with its only losses to Marquette and Tennessee, both highly-ranked opponents. 

But Shannon was arrested in late December on a charge of rape after an alleged incident in Lawrence, Kansas, a few months prior and was swiftly suspended by the university. Shannon responded by filing a temporary restraining order against the university to stave off his suspension. On Jan. 19, a federal judge ruled in Shannon’s favor by issuing a preliminary injunction against Illinois. Shannon returned to the lineup two days later and has averaged more than 31 minutes per game in the four games since, helping the Illini to three wins during that stretch. A preliminary hearing in Shannon’s criminal case has been pushed from Feb. 23 to May 10, which means he’ll likely complete the season. 

As uneasy as Shannon’s situation might be — the chants from opposing fans have been particularly pointed since his return — his basketball talent makes Illinois a dangerous team down the stretch. Headlined by his mark of 20.1 points per game, the Illini now have four players averaging double figures in one of the league’s most balanced offenses. Illinois ranks fifth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency with a legitimate eight-man rotation. A starting lineup that features five players between 6-foot-4 and 6-10 — including four players who are 6-6 or taller — affords head coach Brad Underwood significant positional versatility. 

Laken: It’s a good thing Arizona pulled off that 87-78 win over Oregon last weekend, otherwise the Wildcats would have lost consecutive games for the first time this season after losing to Oregon State at the buzzer two days before that. The Wildcats and Ducks are tied atop the Pac 12, and a loss would have knocked them out of the No. 1 spot.

Despite several close games recently, many pundits have Arizona making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats could even be a No. 1 seed and are a popular pick to win the national championship. They have Caleb Love – the North Carolina transfer and Wooden Award candidate – who leads the team in scoring (19.3 ppg). He scored a career-high 36 points in that win over Oregon, and is a big reason why Arizona has the nation’s second-best scoring offense (89.2 ppg).

Something that could hold this team back? Arizona is currently ranked 199th nationally in scoring defense (72.4 ppg). But if Tommy Lloyd’s team can make improvements, the Wildcats could have a chance to win its first title since 1997 and, ironically, do so in its home state with the Final Four taking place in Phoenix this year.

If you had to pick one player – men’s or women’s – that the average college basketball fan should know about heading into the final two months of the season, who would it be?

Laken: South Carolina guard MiLaysia Fulwiley is one of the most exciting freshmen in the country. In her college debut, she went viral with a coast-to-coast layup in South Carolina’s 100-71 win over Notre Dame. The play caught the attention of Magic Johnson and Kevin Durant, who immediately tweeted about the budding star.

Since then, Fulwiley has been a consistent playmaker for Dawn Staley’s team. In a recent 35-point win over Texas A&M on Jan. 21, Fulwiley scored a career-high 21 points for the Gamecocks. She’s third on the team in scoring (11.4 ppg), assists (2.7 apg) and blocks (1.0 bpg) while coming off the bench. 

Staley has described Fulwiley as a “generational” talent, and she could be key as the Gamecocks try to make another run at a national championship.

Michael: Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht has blossomed into one of the most explosive and lethal scorers in college basketball during his first season with the Volunteers. Knecht was a zero-star recruit after two seasons at Northeastern Junior College in Sterling, Colorado, and ultimately committed to Northern Colorado. He averaged 8.9 points per game as a junior during the 2021-22 season and improved to 20.2 points per game the following year before entering his name in the transfer portal. With excellent size (6-6, 204 pounds) and impressive efficiency (47.9% shooting in 2022-23), Knecht was rated the No. 13 transfer in the country by 247Sports.

Knecht committed to the Volunteers and immediately picked up where he left off, level of competition be damned. He poured in 17 points during his debut and began the season with nine straight games of double-figure scoring. Fast-forward to the present and Knecht’s scoring average of 20.1 points per game is tied for sixth nationally among players from Power 5 conferences. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game over his last six games, four of which were wins, and has helped the Volunteers to a 15-5 overall record and a No. 5 national ranking. Knecht is the type of player who can fuel a postseason run. 

Which one of these three big-name programs could you see missing the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament this year: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Villanova?

Michael: When everything is said and done, there’s a good chance all three programs will reach the NCAA Tournament considering the talent on their respective rosters, the caliber of their respective coaches or both. But if there’s one program that seems more vulnerable than the rest, it’s probably Villanova. 

The Wildcats are mired in a five-game losing streak for the first time since the conclusion of the 2010-11 campaign, a year in which Villanova began the season 21-6 before losing six straight from Feb. 21 through March 18 to flame out of both the Big East Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. Back then, head coach Jay Wright quickly recalibrated and won two national championships in the next seven years. He only missed the NCAA Tournament once from 2005 through his final season in 2022. Few programs in college basketball were steadier than business-like Villanova. 

But there seems to be far less confidence that Wright’s hand-picked successor, Kyle Neptune, can right the ship this season, especially given the nature of Villanova’s remaining schedule. A front-loaded Big East slate means the Wildcats have already played Marquette twice (both losses), St. John’s twice (both losses), UConn once (loss) and Creighton once (win). Their only remaining games against ranked opponents are a trip to No. 1 UConn on Feb. 24 (a game they won’t be favored to win) and the finale against No. 13 Creighton at home (a game that might be too little, too late). There won’t be many chances to impress the selection committee against the likes of Georgetown (twice), Butler and Xavier. Other than the overtime victory over Creighton in mid-December, the only things propping Villanova’s résumé up are non-conference wins against then-No. 14 North Carolina and Memphis.

The key to any potential turnaround might be motivation, and therein lies another complication for Neptune, who is 28-27 in his first two years. An article from The Philadelphia Inquirer reported the total payout to Villanova’s roster to be approximately $3 million for the 2023-24 season, with all scholarship players receiving at least $75,000 each through the school’s collective. The losing streak has stretched to five. The hopes of an NCAA Tournament berth are waning. The money is already in players’ pockets. Will they have enough motivation to change things?

Laken: After being a popular pick to win a national championship for what’s felt like the last half decade or so, Gonzaga is facing a harsh reality this season that it might not make the NCAA Tournament at all. It would be the first time the Bulldogs missed the tourney since 1998, which was before Mark Few became the head coach.

The Zags are 16-5 and currently riding a five-game winning streak, so things could be turning around. But if they don’t, the Bulldogs could find themselves on the bubble. An upcoming matchup vs. Kentucky could be telling. The Zags will play in Rupp Arena on Feb. 10.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

---

---