College Football Playoff: Joel Klatt’s CFP predictions

The first round of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff takes place this weekend. Before the games begin, I wanted to pick each of the first-round matchups and share my bracket for the inaugural edition of the expanded 12-team playoff.

You might want to take my advice as well, as I went 4-1 in my picks against the spread during conference championship weekend on “The Joel Klatt Show,” bringing my record to 49-30 (62%) for the season. I also gave out that Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter’s 60-1 Heisman pick before the season, so it’s been a good year.

That said, let’s take a more in-depth look at the first-round tilts before picking the rest of the bracket!

No. 10 Indiana (+7.5) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, 8 p.m. ET)

Indiana failed its first tough road test at Columbus, losing 38-15 to Ohio State. It basically gave up two touchdowns on special teams, one on a return and the other on a blocked punt that gave the Buckeyes a short field. Indiana made a lot of mistakes and struggled to deal with Ohio State’s defensive pressure.

But after I called that game, I said that Indiana would be better the next chance it got. This group of players and coaches hadn’t faced anything close to a road game at Ohio State. What we’ve seen over the course of the season are teams failing to play well in a road environment against a top-five team the first go-around. Both Georgia and Ohio State lost their first top-five road matchup earlier this season before winning their second road top-five tilt.

The opportunity has now arrived for Indiana to potentially do the same. I firmly believe that Indiana will play a much better game against Notre Dame than it did against Ohio State. The issues the Hoosiers had against the Buckeyes are fixable. You can fix the punt issues and the protection plans, with the latter mostly being missed assignments. 

Notre Dame has one of the best rushing attacks and defenses in the country. That sets up a real strength vs. strength matchup. Notre Dame leans on its dynamic and potent run game, while Indiana has the top rushing defense in the country. If you were to build a team that would win at Notre Dame, it’d be one like Indiana. The Hoosiers have been incredible defensively since they shuffled their secondary around in Week 8, only allowing 71 rushing yards per game this season. If they can handle running back Jeremiyah Love and Notre Dame’s 10th-ranked rushing attack (225 rushing yards per game), that’s the entire matchup in this game. 

On the other hand, you wonder if Indiana will be able to protect quarterback Kurtis Rourke. If Rourke is upright, Indiana will be able to move the football. Now, I don’t think Indiana is going to go gangbusters on Notre Dame’s stout defense, but I think this offense learned its lesson against Ohio State. The biggest question I have about this game? Notre Dame’s passing attack. I think Indiana will be able to limit Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball. If Riley Leonard is in a lot of obvious passing situations, I like Indiana because Notre Dame’s passing offense hasn’t developed the way you’d like over the course of the year. Leonard hasn’t thrown for more than 230 yards in a game this season. He helps in the run game, but Notre Dame has only had four games where it’s thrown for at least 200 yards. 

Notre Dame’s last outing brought some concerns defensively as well. The Irish gave up 35 points and almost 500 yards against USC, who arguably had the best offense Notre Dame has faced this season.

I like Indiana to not just cover, but to also win the game. 

Pick: Indiana 34, Notre Dame 31; Indiana covers +7.5

No. 11 SMU (+8.5) vs. No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, noon ET)

I’ve been calling for a white-out playoff game all season (shocking you can do one of those games at noon, too). Happy Valley is one of the great environments in college football. It’s an incredibly loud stadium, and Penn State does a remarkable job defensively at jumping the snap count and taking advantage of the crowd noise. That will be the case in this game, especially if it’s in the 20s and snows the night before. If it is cold with some possible precipitation, Penn State has the advantage of practicing in that weather all week long. SMU won’t get that advantage of feeling what it might be on Saturday until it arrives in Happy Valley, so it might be a bit of a shock to their systems. 

As for the teams themselves, I like SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. He’s a dual-threat signal-caller who has led the Mustangs to a 9-1 record since he took over as their starter. While he can be explosive, Jennings has had a bit of a turnover problem lately. He’s committed 10 turnovers in the last six games. He’s going to have to clean that up against a Penn State defense that can capitalize off that. 

SMU has other pieces as well (running back Brashard Smith has over 1,500 yards from scrimmage) that make it a good team, but it hasn’t faced anyone close to Penn State defensively. Penn State didn’t do a great job against Oregon. However, no one really has this season. Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton firing off the edge for Penn State with the home crowd behind them is going to force SMU to run the ball in order to slow the Nittany Lions down. The teams that have beaten Penn State in Happy Valley have been able to do that in recent years. 

Penn State typically doesn’t lose games it should win, either. Say whatever you want about head coach James Franklin’s record in big games, but he wins the games he’s supposed to win. Even though Penn State lost its two biggest games this season, the Nittany Lions played better in those games compared to the last couple of seasons. So, I think Penn State is getting to a point where it will eventually break through and win a game as an underdog. 

SMU has overachieved to get to this point. This team lost to the only two top-25 teams it faced this season and benefited from a weak schedule in the ACC, with six of its eight league games coming against opponents who went .500 or worse in league play.

Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been playing well, scoring 37 against Oregon in the Big Ten title game. Drew Allar made some great throws while Penn State rushed for 290 yards in that game. SMU can rush the passer a little bit, but it doesn’t have enough.

Prediction: Penn State 35, SMU 14; Penn State covers -8.5

No. 12 Clemson (+11.5) vs. No. 5 Texas (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)

Texas’ defense might be the most underrated unit in all of America. I think the question that needs to be answered going into this game is this: Can Clemson score over 20 points? It only scored three points against Georgia and 14 points against South Carolina — who I think are the two best defenses Clemson has faced this season. 

Cade Klubnik and Clemson will go up against one of the best secondaries in the country. Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron leads a Texas secondary that’s given up the fewest passing yards per game this season. I don’t think Clemson’s going to suddenly find the firepower needed to have a big day against Texas. So, I don’t think Clemson will score 20 or more points. 

That leads to the next question: What is Texas’ offense going to do in this game? There hasn’t been a real firework show for the Longhorns’ offense in the back half of the year. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been battling an ankle injury and his lack of mobility has affected them. He hasn’t played very well, and I’ve candidly felt at points that Texas’ offense would be better with backup Arch Manning. I hate being hyperbolic, but I think it’s the case because when Ewers doesn’t have mobility, he can’t scamper for first downs. That changes the dynamic for Texas’ offense because Ewers doesn’t throw guys open a lot due to his inability to change the pace of his throws. Ewers is a float thrower, and he typically throws with touch. 

Steve Sarkisian’s going to have his cape on. But he typically has great game plans following long layoffs. I think Texas can get to 20 points because of that. However, Ewers is going to have a quick leash.

Pick: Texas 27, Clemson 17; Clemson covers +11.5

No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

If you’re going to build a team designed to give OSU problems in “The Shoe,” you’d build a team like Tennessee — a team that’s rugged and deep on the defensive line and can successfully rely on running the ball. Tennessee is exactly that, ranking top-10 in rushing on both sides of the ball, so, the pressure is on Ryan Day and Chip Kelly to make sure they’re not playing Tennessee’s game. 

Michigan baited them into playing an interior game. It didn’t work out for Ohio State because Michigan’s two best players wrecked that game. You’d be wrong to think Day and Kelly didn’t learn that lesson with a few weeks off after the Michigan game. Day already did that on the defensive side of the ball this season after the Oregon loss, changing Ohio State’s philosophy on that end. Ohio State got more dynamic rushing the passer and allowing safety Caleb Downs to become more involved on every play. 

Day has also shown that he’s learned lessons on the offensive side of the ball throughout his head coaching career. After losing to Clemson in the 2019 CFP semifinal, Ohio State has been aggressive in its subsequent CFP and Rose Bowl games. It’s scored at least 40 points in three of those four such games since then. OSU needs to play this game at tempo and space, which is exactly what Kelly is. He just needs to be himself. Take the game out of the offensive line’s hands and play in space with your dynamic wide receivers (Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate).

As for Tennessee, Dylan Sampson can really run the rock, but Tennessee doesn’t seem to have a secondary option offensively. When you take away Tennessee’s ability to space the field out and run the football, it doesn’t have the ability to get big with personnel groups or change its game plan. If Ohio State takes that away, I have my questions about whether quarterback Nico Iamaleava can light up the Buckeyes’ defense in a way necessary to win. 

Tennessee’s offense also hasn’t been that dynamic against top opponents. It averaged about 20 points per game against FBS teams with a winning record this season. Iamaleava hasn’t really progressed. So, Ohio State has to slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack. Ohio State’s pass rush should be able to get to Iamaleava if it does that. 

Ohio State has the best total and scoring defense in the nation. Do you think that Tennessee will, all of a sudden, light up Ohio State? I have my doubts. 

Pick: Ohio State 31, Tennessee 20; Ohio State covers -7.5

QUARTERFINALS

Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Oregon has looked better than anyone else this season. We’ve seen the flaws of Ohio State. Ultimately, I think Oregon would get the edge over Ohio State again if the two teams met in the Rose Bowl. Pick: Oregon

Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo is a great player. Arizona State has had a great year, but I don’t think it’d be a match for Texas in the Fiesta Bowl as it goes up against that stout Longhorns defense. Pick: Texas

Peach Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State

If Penn State gets by SMU, it has a favorable path in the CFP. Boise State has Ashton Jeanty and … some questions beyond that, at least when it comes to a potential matchup against a title contender. Pick: Penn State

Sugar Bowl: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia

Going back to the Indiana-ND matchup, I do think that game is a coin flip. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if Notre Dame won. Regardless of who wins that game, though, I think Georgia will beat either team in the Sugar Bowl. Pick: Georgia

SEMIFINALS

Cotton Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon

If the first two rounds play out the way I think they will, we’ll get a pair of Big Ten vs. SEC matchups to determine the championship game. I think Oregon’s speed and dynamism would be too much for Texas to handle. Pick: Oregon

Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Georgia

I just can’t quit Kirby Smart. When he gets into these situations, it feels like Georgia always wins the game. Do you also think James Franklin and Penn State will be able to beat Georgia at a neutral site? I know I said that Franklin seemed to be getting closer to winning a big game like this one, but I don’t think it will happen this year. It could be a really close game, though. Pick: Georgia

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

Dan Lanning taking on his former team, which is also the team he took on in his first game as Oregon’s head coach in the same stadium. Do you remember the result of that game? Georgia won 49-3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Well, I think Lanning gets the win this time. Oregon is going to be my pick to win the national championship. 

The Ducks have had a remarkable year and they would be the first team to go 16-0. Definitely, the Ducks would’ve earned it as well, defeating Ohio State for a second time along with wins over Texas and Georgia after winning the Big Ten title in their first season in the conference. 

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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