College football playoff predictions: Arizona State, Miami in; Ole Miss, Colorado out

How unpredictable has the 2024 college football season been?

Kansas has one of those records that tells bold-faced lies to your face. We knew the Jayhawks were good. That’s why they were ranked among the 25 best teams in the country heading into this season by both myself and the Associated Press. So, while KU became the first team ever with a losing record in the FBS to win three games in a row against top 25 programs, it shocked few that Lance Leipold’s team accomplished this feat. It’s been more shocking that this team only began to find its form after the halfway mark of the season. Kansas could just as easily have been a CFP-projected selection like Arizona State is now, even after a 3-9 2023 season.

But that’s how unpredictable this year has been and how expectations for what a team can achieve remain volatile — even with the postseason just one week away. Colorado, a team that went 4-8 last year and lost to unranked Kansas last week, can still make the CFP. Indiana, a team that had won just nine games over the previous three years combined, is one win from securing its first 11-win season in program history. And, yes, the Hoosiers can make the CFP.

And now its rivalry week — the last week of a regular season that has seen all but one team suffer a loss. Unlikely upsets have been a common theme and 2024’s most exciting trait. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out my projections suffer from that volatility at least one more time.

With that said, here are my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 11-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 10-1

3. SMU
Conference: ACC
Record: 10-1

4. Arizona State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 9-2

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 9-1

6. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
Record: 10-1

7. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-1

8. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-1

9. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 9-2

10. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 10-1

11. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 9-2

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 10-1

QUARTERFINAL MATCHUPS

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia)

2. Texas: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami)

3. SMU: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee)

4. Arizona State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)

FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS

5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State

As Ashton Jeanty continues to move toward breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record — needing just 566 rushing yards — a date with an Ohio State team could make for an explosive affair.

The Buckeye defense has proven stingy, holding teams to just 241.7 yards per game this season, but no team has proven capable of stopping Jeanty.

6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Tennessee

Each program boasts an outstanding tailback. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 850 yards at 7.0 yards per carry this season, while Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson has rushed for 1,307 yards with 22 touchdowns through 11 games. The last time the Vols played at Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish won 41-21 in 2005.

7. Penn State vs. 10. Miami

Cam Ward and the Hurricanes would take their high-powered offense to Happy Valley against Penn State’s capable defense. The Hurricanes have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country (44.7 points per game), while the Nittany Lions rank No. 11 in scoring defense (14.6 points per game). 

8. Indiana vs. 9. Georgia

In what might be the surest test of the Big Ten’s mettle against SEC power Georgia, this game could help set a new standard for not just how the Big Ten must be considered in the future, but Indiana as well. Hoosier fans would not have expected to play in the CFP in August.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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