College football playoff predictions: New SEC powerhouse program enters the mix

Show up or get shown out. That’s the motto heading into November.

With more than half of the 2024 college football season in the books, programs that have not proven to be perennial powers are flexing their resilience.

Iowa State is 7-0 for the first time since 1938. Indiana is 8-0 for just the second time since 1967. BYU is 8-0 for just the second time since 1990. Army is 8-0 for the first time since 1996. All four programs could end this season undefeated, and that includes the Hoosiers, who will play Ohio State on Nov. 23 in the Shoe.

And all of that is happening while Vanderbilt has earned its first top 25 ranking since 2013 and Boise State boasts a tailback who might come close to breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing total (2,628). Normally, these programs would simply make for good stories — like UCF running the table in 2017 or TCU running the table in 2010. Each ended their seasons undefeated with wins in a New Year’s Six Bowl, but neither had the opportunity to play for the national title in the Bowl Championship Series or College Football Playoff era.

This season, that comes to an end. 

At least one of these programs – Iowa State, Indiana, BYU and Army – will earn entry into the 12-team CFP if they finish the regular season unbeaten. Odds are that it will be either BYU or Iowa State, who could meet for the first time this season in the Big 12 title game and be one of the four highest-ranked champions. Not bad in a season where Alabama has faltered, Florida State has been abysmal and Oklahoma and USC have simply been mediocre.

With that said, let’s get to my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 8-0

2. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 6-1

3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 8-0

4. Iowa State 
Conference: Big 12
Record: 7-0

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 6-1

6. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 7-0

7. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-1

8. Clemson
Conference: ACC
Record: 6-1

9. BYU
Conference: Big 12
Record: 8-0

10. Texas A&M 
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-1

11. Tennessee 
Conference: SEC
Record: 6-1

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 6-1

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Clemson vs. 9. BYU)

2. Georgia: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Texas vs. 10. Texas A&M)

3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Penn State vs. 11. Tennessee)

4. Iowa State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State) 

5. Ohio State (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 12. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)

This matchup involves the most prolific tailback in the sport in Ashton Jeanty and perhaps the most talented set of tailbacks on one team in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Jeanty rushed for 192 yards against an Oregon team that is the consensus No. 1 team in the country. Going up against the Buckeyes would make for an exciting matchup.

6. Penn State (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 11. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams)

If Ohio State has the best set of tailbacks in the sport, then Penn State has the second in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The tandem has helped lead Penn State to a 7-0 start to the season, while Tennessee possesses the best tailback in the SEC in Dylan Sampson, who rushed for over 100 yards in the Vols’ win against Alabama.

7. Texas (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. Texas A&M (one of the top-12 teams)

This matchup might be the most anticipated of this projected CFP field with the Longhorns and Aggies meeting for the first time this November since 2011. That game could also decide which team earns entry into the SEC Championship Game. Mike Elko’s Aggies remain undefeated in SEC play as the season enters November.

8. Clemson (ACC championship runner-up) vs. 9. BYU (Big 12 championship runner-up)

After a devastating loss to Georgia to open this season, the Tigers have rampaged through their schedule. Meanwhile, the Cougars are off to an 8-0 start for just the second time since 1990. Between quarterbacks Cade Klubnik and Jake Retzlaff, this CFP matchup could come down to who scores 40.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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