College Football Playoff preview: Picking the first-round CFP matchups

The wait is almost over. 

The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff is set to kick off this week as Notre Dame and Indiana meet at 8 p.m. ET Friday at Notre Dame Stadium, followed by a trio of opening-round matchups on Saturday: SMU at Penn State (12 p.m. ET), Clemson at Texas (4 p.m. ET) and Tennessee at Ohio State (8 p.m. ET).

All four matchups will take place on campus, as the higher seed in each game will host the opening-round playoff games. It is shaping up to be one of the most memorable weekends in the sport’s history, and our  college football writers Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen are here to preview it all.

Who will win each first-round matchup, and why? Here are our expert’s picks.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Laken Litman: Statistically, these teams match up pretty well: Notre Dame has a top three scoring defense, Indiana has a top three scoring offense; Notre Dame has a top 10 rushing attack, while Indiana has the nation’s best rushing defense. But on a night where it could be hard to throw the ball – in the current forecast, there’s a chance of snow with a high of 33 degrees on Friday night in South Bend – the game could favor Notre Dame.

That’s because the Irish offense is built around the run. Notre Dame ranks 10th nationally in rushing offense (224.8 yards per game) and is led by sophomore star running back Jeremiyah Love, who leads the team with 949 total rushing yards, is averaging more than 7 yards per rush, and has scored 15 touchdowns. What’s more is that quarterback Riley Leonard is exceptionally dangerous with his feet – he’s second on the team in rushing yards (721 yards, 14 TD). 

It could be tough to run between the tackles – IU is only allowing 70.8 yards on the ground per game and has only given up 10 rushing scores all year. But Riley adds another wrinkle that could fluster the Hoosiers.

“You can’t stop the run if they are going to run the quarterback,” IU defensive coordinator Bryant Haines said this week. “It’s making the quarterback pay a toll every time he wants to run it.”

Whether Indiana can do that or not could be the difference in this game.

Pick: Notre Dame

RJ Young: Indiana has shown it can’t be the explosive, high-scoring team that beat 10 out of 12 opponents by double-digits if QB Kurtis Rourke is hurried or sacked. Against Michigan and Ohio State — their most contested win and their only loss, respectively — Rourke was sacked nine times. Against OSU, he threw for just 68 yards. The type of defense he’s likely to see from Notre Dame is similarly stingy and stifling. 

Notre Dame boasts a top 10 defense and a top 10 rushing attack that looks built to play in the kind of miserable cold that marks South Bend, Indiana, in December. With a QB in Riley Leonard who can run away from pressure and make a play when the pocket collapses, ND has a greater margin for mistakes than IU.

Pick: Notre Dame.

Michael Cohen: A common theme from Indiana’s two most difficult games — the 20-15 home win over Michigan and the 38-15 road loss to Ohio State — was the Hoosiers’ inability to adequately protect quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the revelatory transfer from Ohio. An offensive line that lost one projected starter during fall camp and another late in the season surrendered 14 pressures with four sacks to the Wolverines and eight pressures with five sacks to the Buckeyes, both of whom had more talent than IU in the trenches. It’s far from coincidental that Rourke’s two worst outings of the campaign in terms of completion percentage (60.7% vs. Michigan; 44.4% vs. Ohio State) and NFL passer rating (92.3 vs. Michigan; 54.9 vs. Ohio State) came against those opponents. The decision-making from an otherwise unflappable signal-caller appeared deeply flawed on numerous occasions when the pocket collapsed. 

An excellent Notre Dame defense that ranks third nationally against the pass (157.9 yards per game) and is tied for fourth in interceptions (17) could make Rourke’s life difficult on what is expected to be a cold, and potentially snowy, evening in South Bend, Indiana. The Fighting Irish have snagged 10 INTs in their last five games against non-service academy programs, including four games with at least two picks. And the pass rush should be bolstered by the healthy return of defensive lineman Howard Cross III, who hasn’t played since the Week 11 win over Florida State but still ranks second on the team in sacks (four) and third in quarterback pressures (16). It might be a long night for the Hoosiers. 

Pick: Notre Dame

SMU vs. Penn State – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

RJ: Penn State will give the Mustangs one of the rudest welcomes in the playoff with a white out at Beaver Stadium in weather that has Jack Frost asking for a heated blanket. And after scoring 37 points against the No. 1 team in the country and its only losses coming by one score to top-six teams, the Nittany Lions know they can play with the best in the country. They’ll look to show that with tailbacks Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

The only real tests SMU has faced this season has seen came against BYU and Clemson. Both were losses. And neither of those teams is as good as No. 6 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon. A high-scoring affair feels like the only way SMU can win.

Pick: Penn State

Michael: All season, it seemed, questions lingered about the veracity of SMU’s near-perfect résumé as the Mustangs rolled into the ACC Championship Game with an unblemished conference record and a lone defeat to BYU, which crawled into the top 10 of the AP Poll in early November. Sure, SMU had beaten Louisville, Duke and Pittsburgh to give its Strength of Record an important boost as the College Football Playoff selection show drew closer, but an unbalanced league schedule meant the Mustangs never faced Miami, Clemson, Syracuse or Georgia Tech in the regular season, four teams with a collective record of 23-9 in league play. And were it not for SMU’s improbable second-half comeback to narrow the margin against Clemson in the ACC title game — a matchup the Mustangs trailed by 17 at the half before ultimately falling, 34-31, on a field goal as time expired — it’s possible the committee could have left head coach Rhett Lashelee’s team out of the CFP entirely. 

All of which is to say that the Mustangs remain unproven against high-level competition entering a first-round showdown with Penn State, which pushed No. 1 Oregon to the brink in a hotly contested Big Ten Championship Game earlier this month. That doesn’t bode well against a Nittany Lions team that boasts the sixth-best defense in the country, a rushing attack anchored by future pros in tailbacks Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and a raucous home environment that is among the best in college football. Penn State has the right ingredients to control the clock and strangle SMU. 

Pick: Penn State

Laken: The Nittany Lions simply have a better defense – the sixth-best unit in the country – and too dangerous of a running game – Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton were the best one-two punch in the Big Ten all year – not to win this game. Not to mention, a home environment that is traditionally one of the most intimidating in college football. 

This is not to totally discount SMU. Quarterback Kevin Jennings certainly has Penn State’s attention. The dual-threat QB led a miraculous comeback in the ACC Championship Game and the Mustangs nearly knocked off Clemson. He passed for 3,050 yards with 27 touchdowns and added 379 rushing yards with five more scores this season as a sophomore. He hasn’t consistently faced a defense like Penn State’s though. Defensive end Abdul Carter is one of the best players in the sport, and leads Penn State with 10 sacks, which is also tied for 12th most nationally. Not to mention, the Nittany Lions were able to push Oregon around in the Big Ten title game, which is nothing to sneeze at.

Ultimately, Penn State, which has struggled in decisive moments such as these in the past, will get a critical win when it needs it most.

Pick: Penn State

Clemson vs. Texas – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Michael: One of the biggest differences between last year’s Texas team, which reached the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history, and this year’s team, which was expected to get here from the outset, is the significant improvement of the Longhorns’ defense under fourth-year coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski. In 2023, Texas ranked 35th in total defense (336.7 yards per game) and 15th in scoring defense (18.9 points per game) before getting gashed by Washington in a high-scoring semifinal. The Huskies racked up more than 530 yards of total offense against Kwiatkowski’s unit as quarterback Michael Penix Jr. completed 29 of 38 passes for 430 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, leading Washington to a 37-31 victory. 

This year, however, Texas ranks third nationally in total defense (249.5 yards per game) and second in scoring (12.5 points per game), providing plenty of ballast for an offense that was held to 25 points or fewer in four games against conference opponents, including both losses to Georgia. Sophomore linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons have combined for 28.5 tackles for loss, a number that represents more than 50% of the total for 26 FBS teams this season. The Longhorns are also tied with Notre Dame for the most takeaways in college football with 28 (nine fumbles gained, 19 INTs), the program’s highest mark since 2009. The improvement of Kwiatkowski’s defense is why the Longhorns are good enough to win the national title. 

Pick: Texas

Laken: On paper, Texas has the edge in pretty much every category. A veteran quarterback in Quinn Ewers, who has led Texas to consecutive conference championship games and back-to-back College Football Playoffs, an experienced offensive line, explosive playmakers, and a defense that is being talked about as the best ever in program history. The Longhorns have the No. 2 scoring defense in the country (12.5 ppg), which will be tested against a Clemson offense, led by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who will be making his homecoming to Austin where he grew up. 

There’s no question there will be a lot of emotion entering this matchup on both sides, as this game is not short on story lines. But one that trumps them all is the fact Texas’ defense is stronger than the other two SEC defenses Clemson faced this year – Georgia and South Carolina – and while the Tigers’ offense has steadily improved, things didn’t go their way in those games. 

Expect the Longhorns defense to show out, but this game could be closer than expected as their offensive counterpart has struggled to put games away due to penalties, turnovers and struggles in the red zone.

Pick: Texas

RJ: Texas has one of the best statistical defenses in the sport and two players in Collin Simmons and Anthony Hill Jr. who have combined for 28.5 tackles for loss.

The Longhorns are better burglars than Ocean’s 11 inside the Bellagio, with 28 takeaways and the Thorpe Award winner at cornerback in JahDae Barron.

If the Longhorns limit QB Cade Klubnik’s mobility and are able to get him on the ground, Texas ought to eventually walk down the two-time CFP national champs.

Pick: Texas

Tennessee vs. Ohio State – Who is your pick to win this game and why?

Laken: Much has been said about Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava not being used to these kinds of temperatures. The forecast in Columbus on Saturday is cloudy with a high of 30 degrees, though this game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET, so it will certainly be much chillier by then. It’s not like Knoxville is the Bahamas – UT’s campus is only about a five-hour drive south. But there’s no question Iamaleava will be taking weather precautions, whatever they might be.

Regardless of whether the temps impact Iamaleava or not, that likely won’t be the deciding factor in this game. Ohio State is out for revenge. After laying an egg and losing to Michigan again, the Buckeyes want to prove they can leave that game behind, move forward and make a national championship run. As we’ve said all season, Ryan Day has every weapon at his disposal. Star receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, an experienced QB in Will Howard, an offensive line that has withstood injuries, a stout running game and a defense littered with future NFL talent.

They have all of that, plus the advantage of playing at home in front of a rowdy crowd that probably isn’t selling too many tickets to Volunteer fans.

Pick: Ohio State

RJ: Ohio State loaded up a $20 million roster to win games like this one. The Buckeyes have a clear talent advantage at receiver that they failed to use against Michigan. If Ryan Day and Chip Kelly can find ways to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, that’s a winning strategy given how stingy this Buckeye defense has been all season, allowing just 10.9 points per game.

Pick: Ohio State

Michael: After all the backlash and second-guessing thrown in the direction of Ohio State head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who co-authored a bizarre game plan in their team’s stunning loss to Michigan last month, it seems unlikely the Buckeyes’ braintrust will again fall victim to such nearsightedness. More than two weeks have passed since Ohio State suffered a fourth consecutive loss to the Wolverines, this time a 13-10 home defeat, and still the two offensive architects were being peppered with questions about their shortcomings in news conferences on Monday afternoon. Both men readily admitted that they had planned and coached poorly during the Buckeyes’ biggest game of the year, failing to capitalize on a clear talent advantage at wide receiver and draining any semblance of variety from Ohio State’s rushing attack. 

Surely Day and Kelly, two of the most well-regarded offensive minds in the sport, will respond with something better when facing a Tennessee defense similarly revered for its potent front seven. The Volunteers rank ninth nationally in tackles for loss with 93 and are tied for 11th in fewest rushes of 20-plus yards allowed with eight. This should be the week that Ohio State encourages quarterback Will Howard to lean on his incredible trio of receivers — Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate — and pump the ball downfield. It’s now or never for the $20 million roster and its highly paid coaching staff. 

Pick: Ohio State

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]

---

---