College football playoff projections: Who’s in position to make the 12-team field?

Being the No. 4-ranked team in this year’s 12-team College Football Playoff doesn’t look like a desirable spot.

That’s one of the overarching conclusions I came to when examining my first set of CFP rankings for this season. Through five weeks of action, where the SEC and Big Ten have proven to be in a league of their own when it comes to conference supremacy, all signs point to the No. 4 team in the CFP being a member of the ACC or Big 12. When playing out what my predictions look like at this point, it certainly looks like you’d rather be the No. 5 team in the rankings than the No. 4 squad.

As the No. 5 seed, not only will you get to become the first team to host a playoff game in college football history, but you’ll then have the chance to play on a neutral site against the weakest Power 4 conference champion. Win that game, and you will then earn entry into the semifinal, where you’re likely to see the No. 1 team in the country, but after they have been forced to play a game.

Remember, this year’s field will consist of the top five conference champions, as well as the next seven highest-ranked at-large programs. The top four conference champions receive an opening-round bye, while the fifth conference champion will then be seeded by its CFP ranking.

While those top four conference champions get a bye, the teams seeded 5 through 8 get the luxury of hosting a playoff game. Then, both the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds will be played at former New Year’s Six bowl game sites with the national champion being decided on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

Now that we’ve got that all out of the way, let’s get to my first set of CFP projections for the 2024 college football season:

1. Alabama
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0

2. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0

3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 5-0

4. Iowa State 
Conference: Big 12
Record: 4-0

5. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-0

6. Tennessee 
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0

7. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 3-1

8. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0

9. Clemson
Conference: ACC
Record: 3-1

10. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 4-0

11. Missouri 
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-0

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 3-1

Now that we have the projected seeding set, let’s take a look at what the first round matchups would look like:

1. Alabama: Bye (would then play the winner of Penn State vs. Clemson)
2. Ohio State: Bye (would then play the winner of Georgia vs. Oregon)
3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of Tennessee vs. Missouri)
4. Iowa State: Bye (would then play the winner of Boise State vs. Texas)

5. Texas (SEC championship runner-up) vs. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)

This game could feature the best tailback in the country in Ashton Jeanty, who is on pace to rush for more than 2,500 yards and 39 touchdowns this season. Jeanty and the Broncos could face what already looks like the best Texas team we’ve seen since 2009, and that’s saying something after Steve Sarkisian led the Longhorns to their first Big 12 Conference title in 14 years and first-ever appearance in the CFP last year.

6. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 11. Missouri (one of the top-12 teams)

Missouri is undefeated with a win against a top 25 opponent, while Tennessee has two top 25 wins. The fact that this could be a conference game in any year underscores just how dominant the SEC is in the sport.

7. Georgia (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. Oregon (one of the top-12 teams)

The last time Dan Lanning faced his former boss, the Ducks were embarrassed, 49-3, in Atlanta. But that proved to be a game that was foundational to the run Oregon has been on since, posting back-to-back 10-win seasons. Lanning would relish the opportunity to go back to the state of Georgia and show just how far this program has come.

8. Penn State (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 9. Clemson (ACC championship runner-up)

Picture this: Penn State’s first CFP game would come at Beaver Stadium, against a coach and program who knows what it takes to not just make the CFP, but win the national title in the CFP era — twice.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.

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