Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and tiers of NFL QBs in line for megadeals

The 2023 offseason was a big one for NFL quarterbacks, when four of them — Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert — broke through the $50 million-per-year barrier. It was an exclusive group, reserved only for the truly elite.

Then this past March, four more — Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff — joined the club.

Pretty soon, that $50 million barrier will seem quaint, because that’s the way it goes with quarterback contracts. Once the dam is broken at the most important position in sports there’s rarely any way to stop the flood of money. And the next guy is almost always going to want more than the last guy got.

And the line is already forming to be that next guy. So here’s a look at some of the quarterbacks who could get the next big — or even record-setting — payday, along with the pros and cons of giving them megadeals:

TIER 1: FIRST 5 IN LINE

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

The situation: The Cowboys quarterback is famously unsigned heading into the final year of his four-year, $160 million contract. Jerry Jones insists he’s trying to get a deal done, but there are no signs of progress. The clock is ticking fast with Prescott set to become a free agent in March. He’s undoubtedly going to be the first quarterback to break the $60 million barrier. If he hits free agency, he’ll clear that bar by a lot.

Pros of a big payday: Prescott has been one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the NFL over the past five years, topping 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of his fully healthy seasons. He’s formed what might be the best QB-WR tandem in the NFL with CeeDee Lamb, and with the Cowboys likely to sign Lamb to a megadeal before the regular season opens. It seems foolish to pay him and then let Prescott walk. Also, if Prescott leaves, his heir apparent is Trey Lance.

Cons of a big payday: The only one, really, is that for all the big numbers Prescott has put up in the regular season, he’s never been a big-time player in the playoffs. He’s 2-5 in the postseason with seven interceptions, and it’s unknown if he’ll ever be capable of winning the really big games. The standards in Dallas are Super Bowl or bust, so that might be the determining factor.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

The situation: in his year-and-a-half as the 49ers starter he’s taken them to two NFC Championship Game appearances and one Super Bowl, so it’s ridiculous that he’ll make just $985,000 this year. But NFL rules state that teams can’t re-do rookie contracts until after a player’s third year in the NFL, so the “Mr. Irrelevant” of the 2022 draft is stuck. Barring a devastating injury or startling regression, he’ll get his big deal next offseason, long before he’d hit free agency in 2026. If the 49ers are up near the top of the NFC again, he’ll make a play to be the highest-paid quarterback in the game.

Pros of a big payday: Why mess with a good thing? Purdy is 17-4 in the regular season as a starter and 4-2 in the postseason. And last year, in his first full season as a starter, he showed he was more than just a game manager, throwing for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. For a while, he was even an MVP candidate. He’s played well in the playoffs, too (6 touchdown passes and 1 interception in six games) and he’s only 24 years old. What more do you want?

Cons of a big payday: There are plenty of famous misses in the draft, but there were still reasons why Purdy was the 262nd overall pick in 2022. Was one big season enough to erase the doubts that turned him into a seventh rounder? Plus, as good as Purdy was, the 49ers were still powered by running back Christian McCaffrey. None of this is a reason not to pay him, but it might give 49ers general manager John Lynch pause about giving Purdy a record-setting deal.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The situation: The former No. 1 pick in the draft (2018), Mayfield’s career had hit a wall before his mid-season trade to the Rams in 2022, when he played reasonably well. That got him a three-year, $100 million free agent deal from Tampa Bay that sounds big, but only included $40 million guaranteed. He rewarded the Bucs with a career-high 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, and a playoff win over the Eagles.  Another year like that will almost certainly lead to a new deal for the 29-year-old before he hits free agency in 2027.

Pros of a big payday: Mayfield has a big arm and big talent. He was outstanding as a rookie in Cleveland and terrific in his third year, too. He showed in L.A. and last season in Tampa Bay that in the right situation, with the right talent around him, he can make an offense work. He wasn’t the top pick in the draft for nothing.

Cons of a big payday: Years 1 and 3 were great, but 2, 4 and the first half of 5 weren’t. That’s the biggest issue with Mayfield. Right now, the argument for paying him is one excellent year, but his history is far more up and down. That makes a big payday a very big risk. There’s a bigger downside than upside.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

The situation: After being cut by the Broncos, Wilson is only getting $1.2 million from the Steelers this year. Of course, he’s still getting another $39 million from the Broncos, thanks to the five-year, $245 million deal he signed just two years ago. He looked washed up in 2022, which is why Denver wanted to move on. But he had a bit of a revival last year, throwing for 26 touchdowns and only eight interceptions (though he only had 3,070 passing yards). If he can show flashes of his old form, he could earn one more big deal. He may be 35, but Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks don’t come cheap.

Pros of a big payday: There are three current starting quarterbacks in the NFL who have won a Super Bowl. That’s it. And Wilson was one dumb play call away from winning two. That kind of experience and ability is rare. He could be the kind of player that elevates a team that won 10 games last year, but then fell in the playoffs. And he could still play another four or five years.

Cons of a big payday: He’s 35 and his Super Bowl glory days were a decade ago. He was last elite in 2020 when he threw for 4,212 yards and 40 touchdowns in Seattle. He hasn’t been bad since then, but definitely more mediocre than good. Some of that could have been his surrounding cast, but his decline has been pretty evident for three years. Even one really good year might just be a blip in that trend.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The situation: He’s the only quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl in the last six years, which is why he was rewarded with a four-year, $160 million deal in 2022. That deal looks small now, which is why he wants it re-done. The Rams adjusted it last month to give him more money this season, but that’s just a temporary solution. If he duplicates what he did last season (3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), he’s going to want to join the $50 million club.

Pros of a big payday: If you have a quarterback capable of winning the Super Bowl, you don’t let him go. Plus, even though his numbers last year were down from his stellar Super Bowl year (4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, 17 interceptions in 2021), he didn’t fall off a cliff even though his top receiver, Cooper Kupp, has battled injuries the last two seasons. He just helped turn Puka Nacua into a star. 

Cons of a big payday: He’s 36 years old, so the decline is likely coming. Also, that big Super Bowl season looks like an anomaly compared to most of the last six years. It’s not that he’s been bad. It’s just that for most of his career he hasn’t been elite, even when he’s had good receivers. Obviously, the Rams can win with him and should pay to keep him. But he’s going to want top-of-market money that will be hard to justify at his age.

TIER 2: LONG SHOTS TO WATCH

Justin Fields:  He’s not expected to beat out Russell Wilson for the starting job in Pittsburgh, but if he does, he’ll take Wilson’s spot near the front of the line. He’s due to be a free agent in March and his athleticism is so enticing. One good season will get him the Jordan Love treatment from some team.

Aaron Rodgers:  He’s 40 and coming off a torn Achilles. But remember, he took a pay cut to play for the Jets. If he makes them relevant, does anyone really think he won’t try to recoup those losses with one last big deal when his current one voids in 2026? He wants his money as much as he wants attention.

Geno Smith:  It might take a really big year for the Seahawks to extend his three-year, $75 million contract, which expires after next season. They also just acquired young Sam Howell from the Commanders, and he could be the future for a team in transition.

Daniel Jones:  He played six terrible games and missed two-thirds of last season after signing a four-year, $160 million contract. But if he stays healthy and the Giants ever put a competent team around him, don’t be shocked if he’s asking for more long before the deal expires in 2027.

TIER 3: THE “ROOKIES”

There are four young starters who were drafted last season and will be eligible for extensions after next season — Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.

All four are signed through the 2026 season and Young (Carolina), Stroud (Houston) and Richardson (Indianapolis) all have fifth-year options that their teams can use to keep them through 2027. But once the 2025 season ends, the negotiations can — and likely will — begin if they’re showing promise.

Obviously, based on their rookie seasons, the one to watch is Stroud, coming off one of the finest seasons for a rookie QB in history. The way quarterback salaries are jumping exponentially, he could clear the $70 million-per-year bar when it’s his turn for a big payday — assuming that bar hasn’t already been cleared by then.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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