Euro 2024: What does it take for an underdog to come out on top?

Cristiano Ronaldo has been on the receiving end of it. So has Harry Kane. Back in the day, soccer icons Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Paolo Maldini felt its sneaky wrath. Former Germany international and ex-United States head coach Jurgen Klinsmann has, too.

It is the European Championships’ underdog wind of change, a mystical and unexplained force that occasionally turns this tournament from a haven for superstars, champions and historically great footballing nations, and suddenly bestows favor upon a random outsider.

Ronaldo’s Portugal lost to 74th-ranked Georgia on Wednesday, but it was his very first Euros, 20 years ago, when he was on the receiving end of his most painful and historic upset, when 300-1 Greece won it all, leaving then 19-year-old Cristiano in tears at the end of the final in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon.

Kane’s England was stunned by Iceland in the Round of 16 in 2016. Ibrahimovic’s Sweden went into the 2012 Euros with confidence, but lost to plucky host nation Ukraine in their opening game. Maldini’s Italy came unstuck in 1996 against the Czech Republic, which parlayed that momentum into a surprise run to the final.

In 1992, Klinsmann’s Germany lost in the title game to Denmark, which had remarkably only been handed entry into the tournament 10 days before it started, after Yugoslavia was excluded due to the political breakup of the country.

“Amazing things can happen in tournaments,” FOX Sports analyst Wes Morgan said. “But you need some things to go your way.”

Morgan has some experience in the matter of incredible upsets. The now-retired Jamaica defender was captain of English Premier League team Leicester City when it pulled off the most astonishing season-long shock in soccer history, upturning 5,000-1 odds to lift the title, having been considered favorite to be relegated at the beginning of the season.

Morgan believes the intensity of the Euros and the level of expectation placed on the top teams can work against them. Coming in unburdened can provide an opportunity. Round of 16 games such as Spain vs. Georgia (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on FOX), Portugal vs. Slovenia (Monday, 3 p.m. ET on FOX) or England vs. Slovakia (Sunday, noon ET on FOX) might seem clearcut. History tells us that might not be the case — and Morgan agrees.

“Being the underdog, the focus is not on yourself,” Morgan told me. “In-house, you are probably aware of your own ability, but the media will be talking about the big teams — France, Spain, Germany, England — and that can be to your advantage.

“Once it gets to the knockout there are no second chances. For the underdog, when you have your country behind you, you are feeling good and on form, you are going to go in there and feel like it is pretty even on the pitch.

“The other team will have certain players that are high quality and capable of changing the game. But if they are not quite at it, and you are determined and show passion and real drive and confidence, you are in it.

“There are going to be upsets. We have seen it before, and I’m sure we will again now.”

The magic of the upset is sometimes what it can mean to the smaller or less-favored nation. Georgia’s celebration was uplifting, as were the scenes of delight from Slovakia and Slovenia, both thrilled simply to have qualified for the last 16. Contrast that with England’s national agonizing over the performances from Gareth Southgate’s team despite winning its group, and France’s hand-wringing over the team’s scoring woes.

Georgia forward Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who scored after only two minutes and swapped jerseys with Ronaldo after the game, spoke emotionally about the significance of the result.

“This is the best day in the life of Georgians,” he said. “Nobody believed that we would make it happen. We said that even if there is a 1% chance, if you have the belief, you can do it. 

“Those supporting us from Georgia — we showed that we can do everything together as a country and we are no worse than others. Unity makes us strong, and today we gave our country happiness. This is the best day of my life.”

Outside the leading nations, Morgan likes Austria’s chances of making a deep run, having been a promoter of their ability since well before the victory over the Netherlands that clinched Group D and put everyone on notice.

The underdogs this time will try to follow recent examples from the past couple of tournaments. Iceland, population 330,000, made the quarters in 2016, while Wales went even further and reached the semis of that tournament.

At Euro 2020, delayed until 2021 due to COVID, Switzerland came back to defeat a France team that had looked unstoppable since lifting the previous World Cup.

“As an underdog, use your character and relationships,” Morgan added. “When you are on the pitch with your back against the wall, you know you can rely on your team around you, because everyone is in it together. At Leicester, we had an incredibly strong bond. The togetherness is probably why we went further than we should have.”

Superstar appeal is what makes the Euros the second-strongest tournament on the planet, behind only the World Cup. 

But the potential for upsets? That’s part of what makes it magical.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

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