Euro, Copa América QF betting preview: ‘We’re keeping an eye on Messi’s status’

Hot dogs, apple pie and soccer betting.

OK, that last part isn’t exactly a slice of Americana. But the Fourth of July weekend is full of wagering options on many of the top teams on the planet, as the Copa América and Euro 2024 odds markets reach the quarterfinals.

Copa América is taking place entirely in U.S. stadiums, and even had Team USA in it for the group stage, though not the knockout stage. 

However, Americans’ betting interest has been and remains much stronger in the matches across the pond.

“Euro 2024 is the bigger betting draw, by a landslide,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.

Magee breaks down action on each of the quarterfinal matches taking place over the next three days, with FOX and FS1 bringing you all of those contests.

Euro 2024 Odds and Betting

Spain vs. Germany: This massive match kicks off the Euro 2024 quarters, at noon ET Friday on FOX. In BetMGM’s three-way moneyline odds, Spain is a slim +160 favorite, with Germany +180 and Draw +210. So a $100 bet on Spain would profit $160 ($260 total payout) if the favorite wins in 90 minutes plus injury time.

“This is about as split as you could get so far. The line has stayed close to a pick ‘em since the open, with money coming in on both teams,” Magee said Thursday afternoon.

But to reiterate, the three-way market is for the score after 90 minutes plus injury time, which is why Draw is an option — and sometimes a good one to bet. Obviously, in the knockout stage, these matches can go to overtime/penalty kicks if necessary.

If you’d rather avoid the stress of the three-way market, you can simply bet on the To Advance market. Spain is -120 and Germany -110 to reach the semifinals. In that case, it takes a $120 bet on Spain to win $100 ($220 total profit).

Portugal vs. France: Another battle of big names, with Kylian Mbappé leading France against Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal. France is a +140 favorite, Portugal is a +220 underdog, and Draw is +200 for the 3 p.m. ET Friday match on FOX.

“Definitely some respected money coming in on Portugal so far,” Magee said. “I expect handle to be pretty balanced come kickoff. I think we will see more public money on France. It’s pretty rare to see France with decent plus-money odds on the three-way.”

England vs. Switzerland: Can Three Lions find a way to win a major international tournament for the first time since the 1966 World Cup? The next step for England is in this noon ET Saturday quarterfinal on FOX.

BetMGM has the three-way moneyline at England +120/Switzerland +270/Draw +200.

“Similar to Portugal-France, sharp money has come in on Switzerland. But I fully expect any sort of result from Switzerland to be a positive result for the book. I think we’ll see public money on England,” Magee said. “On the total of 2.5 goals, it will be interesting to see how the action comes in. There’s not a lot right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a lot of money come in on Under 2.5.”

Netherlands vs. Türkiye: No doubt, Türkiye is the upstart of the Euro 2024 odds market. And the Turks are the biggest underdog of the quarterfinals.

BetMGM’s three-way market is at the Netherlands -160/Türkiye +425/Draw +300 for a 3 p.m. ET Saturday match on FOX.

“I think the Netherlands will see more sharp money than Türkiye. We haven’t moved the line yet, so we’ll see,” Magee said. “I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some public money come in on Türkiye as the Cinderella.”

Copa América Odds and Betting

Argentina vs. Ecuador: This is the first quarterfinal in either tournament, at 9 p.m. ET Thursday on FOX. Argentina superstar Lionel Messi might sit out with a leg injury, but his team is a healthy favorite, regardless.

“We’re keeping an eye on Messi’s status. It still should be a manageable game for Argentina without Messi,” Magee said.

BetMGM has the three-way odds at Argentina -210/Ecuador +700/Draw +300.

“Argentina is going to be in every parlay here,” Magee said. “We’re definitely going to want to see an Ecuador result for the match and for the futures. But Argentina progressing would help attract more money in the semis and the final.”

Venezuela vs. Canada: Venezuela is a +155 favorite in three-way odds, with Canada +190 and Draw +210 for a 9 p.m. ET Friday kickoff on FS1.

Action north of the border at BetMGM is leading to liability on the Canadian side.

“We’re going to need Venezuela. There’s no shortage of money coming in from our book in Ontario, in what looks like a very winnable game for the Canadians to progress,” Magee said. “Sharp money has come in on Venezuela, though, moving them from +165 to +155.”

Colombia vs. Panama: Colombia is the biggest quarterfinal favorite in the Copa América odds market. BetMGM has this 6 p.m. ET Saturday match at Colombia -300/Panama +875/Draw +400.

“Not a ton of early action. But I imagine Colombia is another team that will be in a ton of parlays. Hopefully, we can get an upset here. Colombia is also not a good result for the futures,” Magee said.

Uruguay vs. Brazil: A gem of a match wraps up Copa América quarterfinal play, with these South American outfits deemed almost equal. BetMGM’s three-way moneyline is at Brazil +160/Uruguay +180/Draw +210.

“There’s plenty of public money on Brazil. I think the best result for the book is going to be Uruguay progressing,” Magee said.

And to remind once more: In the three-way market, bettors are wagering on the result after 90 minutes plus injury time — not overtime or penalty kicks. If you prefer to just bet on which team reaches the semifinals, wager in the To Advance market. In this match, Brazil is -120 and Uruguay -110 to advance.

As for championship futures on the Copa América oddsboard, upstart Panama is BetMGM’s largest liability. Colombia is the second-largest liability, followed by Uruguay and Canada.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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