Futures bets to make now to win March Madness: North Carolina, Purdue, Arizona

Now that the NFL season has concluded, college basketball is the next sport to tackle the public consciousness. 

And if this season has indicated what we are in for in the Big Dance, it will be wild. 

There have been four schools jostling for the top spot in the rankings this season, with UConn holding No. 1 unanimously this week — its sixth straight week at the top of the ladder. 

While they are riding a 14-game winning streak and are currently the odds-on favorite to win the tournament at +500, the NCAA Top 16 Committee still ranks them behind Purdue as the number one overall seed.

Does that make the Huskies a strong play in my NCAA future wagers? Not necessarily. 

There’s no truly dominant team in college basketball this season, and the gap between the great teams and the middle has decreased.

From a betting perspective, you may get good value by throwing a few bucks on a couple of strong teams with better odds in the futures market.

A few key metrics I like to use for college basketball futures bets are Ken Pom‘s efficiency ratings. Of the last 21 champs, 19 have been in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

Right off the bat, that narrows down your futures bets to the following teams: Houston, Purdue, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona and Tennessee. 

A few others could crack into that group before the tournament (Illinois, Auburn, Marquette, Duke and BYU).

So, with just over three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, let’s dive into the six teams I like to cut down the nets in Phoenix this April. 

Houston

Of that top group of six teams, Houston has the best defense in the country, and it has played a fairly difficult schedule, with all three losses coming against teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament. But Kelvin Sampson’s team has offensive issues that will hinder their title chances: 271st in 2-point shooting and 306th (!) in free-throw shooting.

Purdue

Purdue has never made it to the Final Four; this is the year. 

The Boilermakers are the opposite of Houston. They are ranked second in offense and have played the toughest schedule in the country. After last season’s first-round embarrassment against 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, I suspect the public won’t be interested in picking the Boilermakers to win the title. 

My biggest concerns are poor free-throw shooting (216th in the country) and the fact they haven’t had a game decided by three points or fewer since November.

UConn

Connecticut is the defending champ and one of the hottest teams in college hoops, steamrolling everyone in the Big East — including then-ranked No. 4 Marquette in an 81-53 rout on Feb. 17. Their balance is as good as anyone in the country, and with healthy 7-footer Donovan Clingan, the Huskies will be tough to beat. But, I don’t know if there is value in betting them at this number.

Arizona

While the Pac-12 has seen powers take a step back — USC, UCLA — Arizona is clearly the top team in the conference, and a legit title contender. Last year, they flamed out in the first round after winning the Pac-12 tournament. 

My concern here is shooting and guard play, as they’re a big team that will likely face a lot of zone looks. The contenders above usually smash bad teams; Arizona has lost to two (Stanford and Oregon State). 

Tennessee 

Rick Barnes has a rich history of March struggles, but this is a very dangerous Tennessee team. 

They played the toughest three-game stretch in the country back in November vs. Purdue, Kansas and UNC, but they lost all three. 

They also get the least from their bench of all the serious contenders, so foul trouble could be an issue.

North Carolina

North Carolina is the outsider to watch. Their offense has been spotty, and they recently suffered puzzling losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, two teams that won’t be in the NCAA Tournament, barring a miracle. 

As you should do in the stock market, buy the dips. 

Freshman point guards can be dicey in March, but Elliot Cadeau has been spectacular. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot lost in the title game to Kansas two years ago. They have the skill and experience to make a deep run.

Auburn

Auburn is one outsider to watch. There were in the top 10 of both offense and defense, but fell out after a tough loss to Kentucky. I’m less enthusiastic about the Tigers. Their strength of schedule is the weakest among all the contenders here except Duke. I’m not very bullish on the SEC, which has very good teams, but nobody who is truly elite. 

Futures bets, in order

1. North Carolina (+1800)
2. Purdue (+650)
3. Arizona (+1200)
4. Houston (+950)
5. Tennessee (+1200)

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

---

---