Joel Klatt: Is it time to panic about Michigan, USC and Oklahoma?

For much of this college football season, I’ve centered my discussion and analysis on the programs that have good years and figure to be in the College Football Playoff race through the end of the year.

As we’re right around the middle of the season, I want to turn my attention to a few powerhouse programs that have fallen behind in the first season of the superconferences. Michigan, USC and Oklahoma all lost again in Week 8. Michigan and Oklahoma dropped to 4-3 while USC’s loss to Maryland put it below .500 at 3-4.

At this point, it’s clear that each of those teams won’t make the CFP this season. But they still have something to play for in 2024. So, should these programs be panicking about the rest of the year and the direction they’re heading? Let’s take a deep look at each team.

Michigan: Sound the alarm bells

This is panic time for Michigan, not just right now but maybe even looking forward.

Michigan’s getting no contributions at quarterback and in the passing game. It’s 129th in passing offense (128 yards per game) entering Week 9. That’s not going to cut it, not even close. But Michigan’s turnovers are also up and its third-down conversion rate is down from last year. 

The Wolverines‘ offense is far too predictable, going run, run before throwing on third down to star tight end Colston Loveland. That’s all they’ve got and Loveland is often double covered in most of those scenarios, so they’re punting it away a lot. Now, I don’t think Michigan’s a bad run team. The Wolverines do some quality things in the run game, and they are physical at the point of attack. But they’re not throwing the football well enough to win. 

Michigan overvalued what it had at the quarterback and wide receiver positions in the offseason. The Wolverines probably wish things had gone a bit differently in the offseason, though they can’t go back and change that. Teams can use the transfer portal in this day and age to fill a couple of positional weaknesses. For instance, Texas did that at wide receiver and safety to help round out one of the best rosters in the country. You can construct your roster like that in the modern era.

Maybe Michigan didn’t have enough time to hit the transfer portal in the way it would’ve liked to. It’s fair to think that way considering when Jim Harbaugh left the program. Still, Michigan didn’t evaluate a pair of key positions well. When you do that, it doesn’t work out. 

It’s going to be difficult for Michigan to target transfer wide receivers with the style of football it plays. So, I won’t be as hard on the Wolverines for their failure to improve the wide receiver room through that element. You also have to give kudos to J.J. McCarthy, who was incredible for the Wolverines as many thought the offensive philosophy made Michigan successful. It’s understandable to think why some viewed McCarthy that way, considering the success Michigan had on the ground, but McCarthy was tremendous on third downs last season, particularly on third-and-longs. That allowed Michigan to continue to lean into its philosophy. Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson might have been underrated at wide receiver as a result of that, too. So, those were difficult losses for Michigan, especially when it overvalued its own roster.

The poor offensive play has affected Michigan’s defense. It doesn’t have the depth that it did last year, particularly in the front seven. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter used to tell me that was an important element for his defense because it could play with fresh bodies. None of their defensive linemen played much more than 30 snaps per game last season. We also might have underestimated what Michigan had at linebacker (Junior Colson, Michael Barrett) and in the secondary (Mike Sainristil). 

So, all of those guys are gone. Michigan didn’t evaluate the quarterback position correctly, it overestimated what it had at wide receiver and its depth took a hit. The Wolverines are trying to use the same philosophy that they used to win last year despite that, but they weren’t a team that blew people out. They were a boa constrictor, and when you use that philosophy, you’re playing with a small margin for error.

Just looking at the Wolverines’ schedule for the rest of the season, it’s probably going to be worse before it gets better. They have games against Michigan State, Oregon, Indiana, Northwestern and Ohio State. Michigan will be fortunate to be in a bowl game this season with that schedule. 

It doesn’t look great for Michigan beyond this season, either. The Wolverines will likely lose four players who’ll be first-round draft picks next spring (Loveland, Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant) and their young players aren’t at that level. Sherrone Moore is going to have a very difficult offseason, needing to be honest with himself to try to figure out if it’s a coach, player or scheme problem. There are issues in all three areas. Michigan needs to be more dynamic in its offensive schematics, it has to change its roster through the portal and I think there will be change on its coaching staff. It’s OK to make changes. Of course, Michigan has to improve at quarterback, too. Maybe the Wolverines play freshman Jadyn Davis later in the year just to see what they have in him. 

Regardless of what Michigan does, those fans might have to hang on to the national title year for a bit. You can hang your hat on the fact that you’ve recently seen your program turn it around. So, maybe Michigan can make another drastic turnaround.

USC: Frustrating, but not panicking

If I’m a USC fan, I’m pulling my hair out. This team has been dealing with a major thin margin in terms of results this season. They have led by at least seven points in the fourth quarter in each of their four losses. Their four blown leads in the fourth quarter are tied for the most in the country. So, the Trojans have been right there in each of their four losses. 

The frustrating part, though, is that this isn’t Lincoln Riley’s first year. He can’t point to what Moore had to deal with in Ann Arbor this offseason. USC fans have to think to themselves, “why is this still happening in Year 3?”

That brings me to one of my old adages: If you’re rebuilding a college football program, you’ll lose big before you lose small, you will lose small before you win small, and you will win small before you win big. Everybody talks about building their program like that. There’s a progression and it isn’t supposed to happen overnight. Indiana’s turnaround is an anomaly. 

You have to figure out how to view this season through USC’s lens. Is it Year 3 under Riley or is it his first year without Caleb Williams and working with defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn? Maybe this is a bit of a reboot.

Now, some might think I’m an apologist for saying this is a reboot year. That’s fine, but I’m trying to evaluate USC through an honest lens. Its offense is incredibly young with a first-year starter at quarterback. That young offense might be stuck at the losing-small hurdle as it tries to reach the winning-small level. 

So, if USC is able to turn one of those small losses into a win, don’t you think things might start to flip and it can create some momentum? I do. USC has been in every game and there’s nothing glaringly telling me that it’s not even close to getting over that hurdle. You can’t argue with that, because its four losses are by a total of 14 points. 

This could be the bottom for Riley’s tenure at USC. The direction of the program can change in just one game. I’m not entirely sure that it will, but the tipping point from losing small to winning small can happen quickly. 

When trying to figure out if the problem is coaching, players or scheme, Riley has to feel at least a little bit confident in all three. The scheme and players are putting the Trojans in a position to win, while Riley improved his coaching staff over the offseason. 

The biggest job that Riley is going to have this season is finding some wins to build on. This team should in it in all five of their remaining games, and it’s possible they win all of them as they play Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska, UCLA and Notre Dame. In terms of the offseason, Riley’s biggest job will be player retention. I think the players are there, particularly on offense. They can return nine starters on offense, but that’ll be tough to do in this new era. They have really good talent on the outside, too. Miller Moss also has another year of eligibility. 

This should get better for USC, and it could happen soon. 

Oklahoma: Worried and panicking

Brent Venables, who’s also in his third year, saw his Oklahoma team get blown out in back-to-back games against Texas and South Carolina. They scored a total of one touchdown over those two games. The Sooners‘ first year in the SEC has gone horribly wrong.

We all knew Oklahoma’s schedule was difficult entering the season, and we actually discussed it at quite a bit of length. But the offense has been a disaster. I’ve been saying that since the Tennessee game and that it didn’t matter who the quarterback was. It didn’t change when Michael Hawkins Jr. replaced Jackson Arnold because the scheme is wrong. 

We have evidence of that now. Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Seth Litrell earlier this week and Arnold is back in at quarterback. The Sooners rank 107th in scoring and 116th in total yards. It’s not working. 

To be fair to Oklahoma, it’s been decimated at wide receiver due to injuries. Andrel Anthony, Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson and Jayden Gibson have all missed time and don’t seem close to coming back. It’d be a convenient excuse to point at those injuries, though, for why the offense has struggled. When I watched the film, the entire offensive system was wrong. The offensive line is playing terribly. When the Sooners try to run the football, they can’t get anywhere. The scheme is wrong. 

When figuring out if the coaches, players or scheme are the reason for the issues, it’s the coach and scheme. Sure, you could say it’s a little bit of the players because of the injuries, but the coaching staff and scheme were wrong. Venables fixed the coach part this week, so credit to him for that at the very least. 

Oklahoma has a placeholder offense, though. Joe Jon Finley won’t be its offensive coordinator heading into 2025. So, like Michigan, this is going to get worse before it gets better for Oklahoma. This is not the bottom.

If you look at Oklahoma’s schedule, it might get a lot worse. It still has games against Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU left on its schedule. What is Oklahoma going to do offensively? Just play hard and that’s going to be the game plan with the placeholder offense. 

Once Venables gets through the season, he has to retain these talented offensive players, which he recruited to Oklahoma. Venables also has a chance to do something really special when he makes his hire at offensive coordinator. He’s facing a challenge that Riley faced at USC and Harbaugh faced at Michigan with their respective defensive coordinator hirings. Harbaugh’s hiring changed the defensive schematics at Michigan, which helped the turnaround with the program. 

Venables should make an outside-the-box hire, like Bob Stoops did when he hired Riley to run Oklahoma’s offense in 2015. Maybe Venables hires an NFL guy, but he has the opportunity to hire someone who might be entirely off our radar, like Riley was in 2015, that can help change the offense. There are many examples of those moves paying major dividends in the college game recently. 

My fear for Venables is that he might hire a name that everyone knows to appease the fan base. Venables might not have the job security that other head coaches had when they made outside-the-box hires for a coordinator role. Will he have the courage to do that? UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan are the type of names I want to hear for the candidates for that role.

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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