Joel Klatt: Predicting the 12-team bracket in the 2024 College Football Playoff

College football has never been better, and I believe we are at the dawn of a golden age in the sport.

That is the line I say in the opening to every single episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” and a big reason why I believe that is the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12 teams. It’s going to be an epic, exciting new era, and I can’t wait.

With that said, I’m unveiling my prediction for which teams will make it into the bracket for the first-ever 12-team CFP — and which team I think will be hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.

Let’s take a look at the top-four seeds first. These top-four seeds and first-round byes will be determined by the conference champions. Thus, I will start with predicting the Power 4 conference championship game matchups and who I think will win each of those games.

Big Ten: Ohio State over Oregon

Oregon’s path is relatively easy in their first Big Ten season. The Ducks have just two preseason ranked opponents on their schedule. They play Ohio State at home and a Michigan team that saw most of the key figures in last year’s national title run — including head coach Jim Harbaugh — leave for the NFL. But the Buckeyes are just too loaded to fail at getting back to the top of the conference.

SEC: Georgia over Texas

There are some other teams that could sneak into this matchup. I think Missouri’s schedule is favorable. Ole Miss is right there from a talent perspective. Oklahoma could be a factor as well, depending on how a difficult November slate turns out. But Georgia has a supremely talented roster, a veteran quarterback in Carson Beck, and college football’s best coach in Kirby Smart.

Big 12: Utah over Kansas

If you really look at the team Kansas is and their schedule this year, there is a good chance that the Jayhawks will play for a Big 12 title in football this year. But it’s still death, taxes and Utah football. The Utes are inevitable, even with their move to the Big 12. Kyle Whittingham is an excellent coach. This team has won its conference every year that Cam Rising has been its starting quarterback.

ACC: Miami over Florida State

I think Cam Ward has the chance to be the best quarterback, if not the best player, in the ACC, and you’ve got to ride with the quarterback, especially when talking about conference championship games.

So, now that I’ve named my four Power 4 champions, here are the seeds I think they will get in this scenario:

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Utah

4. Miami

5. Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman is a heck of a coach, and if they can survive that opening-week environment at Texas A&M, the Irish will only have two more true road games for the rest of the season. By the time they play USC in the regular-season finale, I think Notre Dame will do so with its playoff spot already secure — and win, securing a No. 5 seed and first-round home game. 

The additions of quarterback Riley Leonard and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock would jump-start Notre Dame’s offense, and again, the Irish have one of the most favorable schedules in the land.

6. Texas

I have Steve Sarkesian’s SEC runner-up Longhorns in this spot because I think Texas has a really good chance of beating Georgia at home during the regular season, but I’m not as confident in Texas’ ability to do so again in an SEC title game rematch in Atlanta. 

Texas will have a bump in the road at some point. It could be the same bump the Longhorns ran into last year against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns also renew their rivalry with Texas A&M in College Station to finish the regular season, and there’s also the aforementioned Georgia game. I just think it will be too difficult to emerge from all three of those games unscathed. Even with Quinn Ewers back leading a loaded roster, including maybe the country’s best offensive line, the loss of standout running back C.J. Baxter is big.

7. Oregon

The Ducks are firmly in the playoff, and the only reason I have them behind Texas is because I think the committee will reward Texas for its schedule. “Only two ranked opponents” belies the fact that those opponents are Michigan and Ohio State. I could easily see a scenario where Oregon’s only two losses entering the playoff are to Ohio State twice, including in the Big Ten title game.

I’m a big believer in Dan Lanning. I’m a big believer in Dillon Gabriel being even better than he was at Oklahoma, because I think the offensive system at Oregon is going to fit him better. Bo Nix excelled at Oregon as a point guard who got the ball out on time and was accurate. That’s the way Gabriel wants to operate, and that’s the way he will operate at Oregon compared to Oklahoma’s more downfield passing-oriented attack. Plus, Gabriel will have plenty of weapons to work with thanks to how Oregon has recruited.

8. Penn State

Like Oregon, Penn State has one game on its schedule that stands out among the rest, and like Oregon, that game is at home against Ohio State. As I’ve said, Penn State would have been in the College Football Playoff in six of the last eight years under the new 12-team format. The expectation for the Nittany Lions should be to make it in this year, and a real step forward would be making it into the top eight. I expect Penn State to do just that.

I could see a scenario where there is a tiebreaker situation between Penn State and Oregon to try to get to the Big Ten Championship Game, but even though I give Oregon the edge, I think Penn State will be right there as well. 

9. Ole Miss

Ole Miss also has a schedule that, while not necessarily soft, is softer than some of its main conference rivals. Lane Kiffin’s squad is incredibly talented, headlined by quarterback Jaxson Dart in his third year under Kiffin’s offense, which is guaranteed to put up points. My concern with Ole Miss is, like Penn State, they have been elite plenty of times but have not gotten over the hump against the heavyweights in their conference. 

But Ole Miss only has three ranked teams on its schedule — a road game at LSU in Death Valley that will be tough, and home games against Oklahoma and Georgia. This team can afford one or even two losses and still have a spot in this new playoff format.

10. Alabama

I believe in Kalen DeBoer. I believe in his ability to lead the Crimson Tide back to the playoff in the first year of the post-Nick Saban era. DeBoer is a great coach and though he lost a bit in the transfer portal, he is still taking over a roster loaded with elite talent. I know that DeBoer will get the best out of his quarterback, and I believe Jalen Milroe will have a very solid year.

I am a bit nervous about their defense. Not only can you never replace Nick Saban at the helm, but you cannot fully replace the loss of a player like safety Caleb Downs, who left for Ohio State. So that’s why I have the Crimson Tide still taking a bit of a step back, missing the SEC Championship Game and settling for a 10-seed. That schedule does them no favors, including a road game at Wisconsin that I will be calling, followed by a home game against Georgia and eventual road games at Tennessee and LSU that will bring back bad memories of two seasons ago for Tide fans.

11. Michigan

I believe that Michigan still has a high enough floor in the post-Jim Harbaugh era that nine wins should be the baseline expectation. Is that enough to get the defending champions back into the playoff? I’m not totally sure. The Wolverines will have to beat at least one of Texas, Oregon or Ohio State during the course of the year, and they’ve got to beat USC to open up conference play in the new-look Big Ten at home. If Michigan goes 2-2 in those games, it will return to the playoff.

I think new head coach Sherrone Moore understands who he is and what his program is. They’ve got great running backs and an elite defense, so they will continue to have that Michigan identity and be very difficult to face. The floor is nine wins, and let’s not put it past the Wolverines to pick off one of those three teams I currently have ahead of them in this playoff bracket. I do believe Michigan will do just enough in this scenario to get an at-large playoff bid.

12. Boise State

I give Boise State the edge over Liberty, the other likely Group of 5 champion vying for this spot, because Liberty’s schedule is so soft that if the Flames don’t go undefeated, they’re not getting in regardless of whether they win their conference. 

I went with Boise State here because I’m a big fan of Ashton Jeanty, the only running back in the country last season with over 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. Spencer Danielson has done a great job in Boise since taking over after Andy Avalos’s firing last year, and his decision to start Maddux Madsen at quarterback over former top recruit and USC transfer Malachi Nelson shows he’s not afraid to make bold moves.

Winners and losers

First round

No. 5 Notre Dame over No. 12 Boise State

This acts as almost a de facto conference championship game for Notre Dame. This is why former athletic director Jack Swarbrick was fine with this model when he was intimately involved in its negotiations. The Irish still get a 13th game, it just comes as a home game in the actual playoff. I have an undefeated Notre Dame taking care of business against Boise State and winning this game.

No. 6 Texas over No. 11 Michigan

This would be a rematch of the Week 2 “Big Noon Kickoff” game that I can’t wait to broadcast. Regardless of what happens in that first matchup, I think Texas at home with Quinn Ewers under center gets this done and advances to face Utah in the quarterfinals.

No. 7 Oregon over No. 10 Alabama

Who doesn’t want to see a Dan Lanning-Kalen DeBoer rematch after those two epic Oregon-Washington games last year? This matchup would be incredible. Both teams are ridiculously talented, but that environment in Eugene could surprise Alabama. I’m not suggesting that the Crimson Tide don’t play in great and difficult environments. I know they do — the SEC is chock-full of them. But I think Eugene will surprise them. Autzen Stadium is phenomenal, and I think it would be a huge factor in the Ducks winning this game.

No. 8 Penn State over No. 9 Ole Miss

When I first thought of how a 12-team playoff would look and which teams would get home playoff games, the first location I thought of was Happy Valley. I need to see Beaver Stadium host a playoff whiteout like I need my next breath of air. That environment is already amazing as is, so how can I pick against the home team in that case?

Quarterfinals

There’s no guaranteeing how the bowls will be allocated among the top four seeds, but the bowls noted below are how I believe such an allocation would play out.

No. 1 Ohio State over No. 8 Penn State in the Rose Bowl

In this all-Big Ten Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes prove they’re still too talented for the Nittany Lions and beat their conference rivals for the second time in less than three months.

No. 2 Georgia over No. 7 Oregon in the Sugar Bowl

Dan Lanning gets another crack at his mentor, Kirby Smart. This game will be closer than the 49-3 blowout that opened Lanning’s Oregon tenure, but Georgia is still one of the handful of teams that can still claim to be just too talented for Oregon.

No. 6 Texas over No. 3 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl

As much as I love Utah, and as much benefit of the doubt as I would give the Utes if this game was in Rice-Eccles Stadium instead of in Arizona — by the way, I hope that we eventually see these quarterfinals games at higher seeds’ stadiums instead of bowl sites — I believe Texas will win this on a neutral site. As much as I love Cam Rising and Kyle Whittingham, I have to give the edge to Quinn Ewers, Steve Sarkesian and that offensive line.

No. 5 Notre Dame over No. 4 Miami in the Peach Bowl

Maybe the shirts will come back for this one, which would be an epic revival of an old-school college football rivalry. I like Notre Dame here, even though I really do believe in Miami. But when push comes to shove, I trust Marcus Freeman more than Mario Cristobal in a quarterfinal here.

Semifinals

Just like in the old four-team playoff format, the No. 1 seed here will get the choice of where to play between the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl. I think Ohio State would be sitting there and debate over where to play and someone smart in the room would say, “Time out. Why don’t we put Georgia in a more precarious situation?” And then another smart person would say, “Great idea.”

Does it matter to Ohio State that much whether they play Notre Dame in Dallas or Miami? The answer is no. Does it matter if Georgia plays Texas in Miami or Dallas? Absolutely. So, in my model, Ohio State makes its pick to force Georgia into a more challenging matchup.

No. 1 Ohio State over No. 5 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl

Again, I have Ohio State’s talent advantage winning out here and the Buckeyes returning to the national title game for the first time since 2020-21.

No. 6 Texas over No. 2 Georgia in the Cotton Bowl

The Buckeyes’ gambit pays off. Backed by a raucous crowd in “JerryWorld,” just a few hours north of Austin, I have Texas beating Georgia in their third matchup of the season. I would love to see Sark in that environment — a third time facing off against Kirby Smart and that defense, because I think he would bring out a game plan that would be unworldly. I think back to that game I broadcasted a couple of years ago when Texas almost beat a Bryce Young-led Alabama team that the Longhorns had almost no business beating. Don’t let the disappointment against Washington in last year’s playoff fool you — Sark has what it takes for these moments.

National Championship

Yep, you’re welcome. From the guy who just gave you Dan Lanning vs. Kalen DeBoer, Dan Lanning vs. Kirby Smart and a Texas-Georgia trilogy, comes Quinn Ewers against his old school, Ohio State, with a national title on the line.

No. 1 Ohio State over No. 6 Texas

Texas will have to let it hang all out to beat Georgia, and because of that, I don’t think the Longhorns will have enough to beat Ohio State. I had the Buckeyes as the No. 1 team in my preseason rankings, I had them as the No. 1 seed in my playoff bracket, and I think that loaded team will go wire-to-wire and give Ryan Day the national title he and Buckeyes fans so desperately crave.

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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