NBA predictions: Can anyone stop the Thunder’s Western Conference reign?

The 2024-25 NBA season tips off on Tuesday and FOX Sports’ NBA staff is locking in their predictions before the games get going.

The Oklahoma City Thunder finished last season as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, sending a message to the league that their young core might be ahead of schedule. Can they duplicate their success this season, or will a sleeping giant in the west rise from their rest?

Let’s take a look at what our experts had to say:

1. The Suns and Lakers both fired their head coaches after first-round exits in last year’s playoffs. Which team is more likely to get a boost from a change on the bench? Explain your answer.

Yaron Weitzman: Mike Budenholzer has coached 801 regular season games. His teams have won 484 of them. For those who need help with the math, that’s just over 60 percent. If you want to criticize Bud for some of his poor playoff results, fine (though it is worth pointing out that he won a title in Milwaukee), but there might not be a better regular season coach in the NBA. Combine his acumen with the talent of the Suns and you have a mix that could very well lead to a top-four seed in the West.  

Melissa Rohlin: I’m going with the Lakers here. Morale is different around the team this year. Last year, the players were disillusioned and frustrated with Darvin Ham’s frequent lineup changes and there was clearly a breakdown in trust and communication. Throughout this preseason, there’s a different feeling, with the players praising JJ Redick’s preparedness and diligence. His style seems to jive better with the Lakers and there’s a palpable excitement from the players to work with Redick, a former player who is widely regarded as having a brilliant basketball mind but had never coached professionally, collegiately or even at a high school level before getting the NBA’s premier coaching gig this summer. 

2. Three Western Conference heavyweights lost marquee names in free agency over the summer: the Clippers (Paul George), the Warriors (Klay Thompson) and the Nuggets (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope). Rank each team based on how well-positioned they are to compete without said player and explain your thinking.

Weitzman: I hated the Nuggets’ offseason and their ownership’s refusal to spend money. Losing KCP will hurt, however, the Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic, and as long as he’s there, they’re a contender. 

The Warriors are in a different boat. Seeing Klay in another uniform will feel strange, but it won’t hurt them on the court. The Warriors will be able to give more minutes and shots to Jonathan Kuminga, and free agent addition De’Anthony Melton will bolster their perimeter defense, if he can get healthy.

To me, the Clippers are on the outside looking in—not just with this group but in terms of the playoffs. Their bets seem to be that Kawhi Leonard can remain healthy and that James Harden can still carry an offense. Those are two bets I wouldn’t have made. 

Rohlin: Nuggets No. 1, Warriors No. 2 and Clippers No. 3.=

When it comes to the Nuggets, don’t get me wrong, KCP was a big part of them winning a championship. He’s a grind-it-out defender, a reliable 3-point shooter and a savvy veteran who knows what it takes to go all the way. But the Nuggets still have most of their core, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. They should be just fine.

As for the Warriors, losing Thompson was shocking but inevitable. He hasn’t been the same following back-to-back ACL and Achilles injuries and he felt disrespected when the Warriors didn’t offer him a max contract extension and his role changed after he helped them win four championships. A fresh start for both Thompson and the Warriors seems mutually beneficial for both parties. Now for the Clippers, without George I just don’t see how they can compete.

Kawhi Leonard is seemingly always injured and James Harden is a wild card. They lost their most reliable star as of late, and, without George, I don’t see them being able to hang in the ultra-competitive West. 

3. After finishing as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season, the Thunder added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to their depth chart in the offseason. Do the two veterans make the Thunder favorites to win the West or are there still teams worth putting ahead of them?

Weitzman: Yes, very much so. This Thunder team is absolutely loaded, with everything you look for in a title contender. OKC has an MVP candidate (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and multiple secondary playmakers and shotmakers (Jalen Wiilliams and Chet Holmgren). It can play big, it can play small. It has shooting. Wing defense. A great coach. The only thing the Thunder don’t have is deep playoff experience. That will change this season. 

Rohlin: They’re at the top, if not No. 1. Caruso is one of the most underrated players in the league. And Hartenstein is a big asset as well. You combine those two with a team that was already soaring, led by superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and you’ve got a squad that could really make another huge leap this season, brimming with offensive and defensive firepower. 

4. Coming off of their first Finals appearance since 2006, the Mavericks bolstered their perimeter shooting around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving by signing Klay Thompson to a three-year, $50 million contract in free agency. Will the risk pay off for the Mavericks or will they have buyer’s remorse sooner rather than later?

Weitzman: Klay will give the Mavericks another offensive weapon, and his ability to hurt defense’s off the ball makes him a great match for playing alongside Luka and Kyrie. The problem is going to be on the other end of the court. Can the Mavericks stop anyone if those three are sharing the floor? If not, are we going to see a similar situation to last season where Klay occasionally gets benched in crunch time and pouts? That, to me, is the part of this bears watching. 

Rohlin: I really like this fit. Klay helps open up the floor for the Mavericks, who showed they could really use some perimeter shooting when defenses collapsed on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving last postseason. The fact that Klay has won four championships and can help guide Luka should not go understated as well. I agree with Yaron that the issue here is the Mavericks’ defense. It’s too bad because before Klay’s injuries he was a very underrated defender. But now, I expect the Mavericks to be one of the top teams in the West because of their incredible offense – but whether that’s enough to get them as far as they want this postseason is a question mark. 

5. For the first time since 2015, the Timberwolves will go into the season without their star big man Karl-Anthony Towns. Can the Timberwolves replicate their success from last season with Julius Randle in KAT’s place or is trouble brewing in Minnesota?

Weitzman: The Timberwolves didn’t just trade KAT for Randle. They also got Donte DiVincenzo, and they’ll now have more minutes to give reigning Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid. Even if you do believe they’ve lost a bit of talent—and I don’t—they’re certainly more than made up for it with depth. Combine it all with the continued ascension of Anthony Edwards and a great coach in Chris Finch and you have, in my view, a legitimate title contender. 

Rohlin: Losing Karl-Anthony Towns was a hard-to-swallow pill for many Timberwolves fans considering he had been a part of the organization’s ups and downs since 2014. But the Timberwolves should still be contenders. They’re deep, Randle and DiVincenzo are strong additions and this move allows them to have the long term financial flexibility to develop young talents Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid.

6. Predict where each team will finish in the Western Conference, 1-15.

Weitzman:

1. Thunder
2. Timberwolves
3. Suns
4. Nuggets
5. Mavericks
6. Grizzlies
7. Kings
8. Lakers
9. Rockets
10. Pelicans
11. Warriors
12. Clippers
13. Spurs
14. Jazz
15. Trail Blazers

Rohlin:

1. Timberwolves
2. Thunder
3. Mavericks
4. Nuggets
5. Suns
6. Kings
7. Lakers
8. Grizzlies
9. Pelicans
10. Warriors
11. Clippers
12. Spurs
13. Jazz
14. Trail Blazers
15. Rockets

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of “Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports.” Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

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