Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill? Dodgers or Phillies? Smoltz weighs in

While Chris Sale continues to look more and more like the front-runner for the National League Cy Young Award, 21-year-old Jackson Merrill is making another NL award race more interesting.

As part of our weekly conversation with John Smoltz, we talked to the MLB on FOX analyst about Sale’s Cy Young competition, whether Merrill has done enough to surpass Paul Skenes as the NL’s top rookie and how he views position players and pitchers when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race.

The Hall of Famer also shared his thoughts on MLB players potentially participating in the 2028 Olympics, which NL contender has the highest ceiling and more.

Kavner: The 2028 Olympics have been a hot topic these days, especially as it relates to Major League Baseball and players potentially being available to play with it being in Los Angeles. Do you think MLB should permit players to play in that, and, if so, how could this possibly look?

Smoltz: Yeah, that’s a tricky conversation. In the past, college players, minor-league players, it was a little easier to have that work out, but baseball in its long season, that would be a difficult process. When you have the World Baseball Classic, which has existed in a semi-Olympic format, I think it’s going to be difficult for major-league players to play in it during the summer. I played in 1984 in the Junior Olympics. That was a blast for me. I would have loved, as a major-leaguer, putting on a USA uniform. No doubt, they would be intrigued, but I think it’s very complicated. I don’t know how they navigate that.

We’ve talked so much about Paul Skenes, and deservedly so. But has Jackson Merrill done enough at this point to supplant Skenes as the National League Rookie of the Year favorite?

He has. I would give him an inside track at finishing the year strong to get him over the edge, because I’m not so sure we’re going to see Skenes finish out the year, especially if Pittsburgh falls out of the playoffs; that could hurt him in voting. He’s dynamic. It’s not apples-to-apples. 

When you compare rookies that play every day and a pitcher who’s obviously dominating the way he has, I think Skenes would have the advantage if he finished the season and his team got in the playoffs. That would be a feather in his cap. But I think what Jackson Merrill’s done and what San Diego’s done, that’s going to close the gap, if not take the lead, in my opinion, on an everyday impact player.

You touched on my next question: When it’s a position player versus an ace in this award, do you personally give the former a bit of an edge since he’s out there every day? 

I think he should. As a former pitcher, I wish we had awards for each category, pitcher and position player. And ultimately, if you have a Dwight Gooden-type year, you’re going to beat any position player unless he wins the triple crown. But I think in today’s game, we have impact players that are young, they’re making differences for teams. And we’re not talking about a platoon rookie. We’re talking about a guy in the middle of a playoff run that has been unbelievable of late. 

So, there’s a lot of that that goes to tie-breaking and, in my opinion, when you have a position player that’s close to a dynamic pitcher, the tie-breaker should go to the position player because he’s playing and impacting the season way more than a once-every-five-day-type guy. But it shouldn’t take away from the greatness of Paul Skenes.

Chris Sale continues to dominate in an otherwise strange year for this Braves team. Do you think there is a sizable gap between him and other NL Cy Young candidates?

Yeah. Comeback Player of the Year, Cy Young, he might even get some MVP votes by the time it’s all said and done, but he has been special. The beginning of September, I start putting my formula together for the contenders. And I would say, if Chris Sale can finish this season, it’s his to lose, in my opinion, just with everything that’s at stake. 

Again, I know these awards have nothing to do with what your team does. I get it, but there has to be some bang for your buck if that comes into play for what he’s been able to do for a beat-up Atlanta Braves team. He has been special. I never liked saying it’s somebody’s to lose, but my goodness, has he been good? And I think he’s the front-runner.

The Dodgers finally got Mookie Betts back and expect to see a few other starters return soon. Do you think they have the highest ceiling in the National League, or would you say the Phillies despite their recent struggles? 

Well, the Dodgers have the highest ceiling because they have the most resources that they put into their ball club. They’ve got to find a way to stay healthy in the rotation. They just haven’t been able to do that. In the last couple years in the postseason, they just haven’t had the army they want to march with. And I think the biggest reason why their ceiling is so high is they’re going to get some people back, and they’ve already gotten their superstar back in Mookie. 

Philadelphia certainly has every resource for a World Series run, no doubt. But I think the biggest thing for Philadelphia, as they navigate this little kind of funk they’re in, is learning from last year and being in position to make that final quest to win that World Series. I never like to think it’s a two-team race because, go tell that to Milwaukee. They just keep supplanting everybody’s expectations, and they’re a dangerous team to play. And then, all of a sudden of late, the Braves have had some big wins, so they’re kind of bouncing back after what’s been a really low last two-and-a-half, three weeks for them.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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