Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Back in late March, when MLB’s regular season began, Paul Skenes wasn’t yet on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ roster. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft was with Triple-A Indianapolis.
So he wasn’t a significant factor in NL Rookie of the Year odds, and even less so a consideration in NL Cy Young odds.
But since his May 11 call-up to Pittsburgh, Skenes has been so dominant that he might just win both awards.
“It really has been unbelievable how fast Skenes has become one of the top pitchers in baseball,” BetMGM trader and baseball aficionado Hal Egeland said.
Egeland chimed in on Skenes’ superb first season and how it’s impacting odds on the NL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year honors.
Runaway Favorite
Months ago, when NL Rookie of the Year odds first went up, Skenes was the +1300 fifth choice. Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the +210 favorite. Skenes shortened to +900 preseason, but then slid well out when he wasn’t on the Opening Day roster.
“The odds made their way to +3000 at one point. With every start he missed in the big leagues, it’s a decreased chance of him winning, from our view,” Egeland said. “But once it was clear he was being called up, we dropped him close to his opening odds, +1100.”
Since that May call-up, Skenes is 6-1 in 14 starts with a sparkling 1.99 ERA. Pittsburgh is 9-5 with Skenes on the hill, and the youngster already has 107 strikeouts against just 19 walks.
With those numbers and more in mind, BetMGM has Skenes as a massive favorite in NL Rookie of the Year odds. He’s now -3000, meaning it would take a $3,000 bet to win $100 ($3,100 total payout). So congratulations to anyone who jumped on board at +3000, when it would’ve taken only $100 to win $3,000 (again, $3,100 total payout).
“Barring injury or [the Giants’] Tyler Fitzgerald keeping up his Barry Bonds-esque streak, the Rookie of the Year has already been decided,” Egeland said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes off board after Skenes’ next start or two, should he keep up his domination.
“His last start was one of his worst, and he gave up a whopping two runs. If that’s a bad start for him, there’s no real competition for this year’s Rookie of the Year.”
Doubling Up
On May 10, when it was clear that the Pirates would call up Skenes, BetMGM figured: Why not post him in the NL Cy Young odds market, as well? What the risk room didn’t figure was that Skenes would have such a meteoric rise.
“We opened him up at +20000 (200/1). That looks like a crazy number now, but at the time, we didn’t think that was the case,” Egeland said. “He’s a rookie who won’t have as many innings as the other candidates, going to an under-league-average team — at least at the time — with potential innings control, due to how valuable he is to the Pirates’ future.”
If you were able to ignore those factors and took a flier on Skenes, then you’d be sitting on a very nice ticket right now. A $100 bet on Skenes at +20000 would pay out $20,000, provided Skenes wins the NL Cy Young Award.
Fast-forward to today, and Skenes is all the way up to No. 2 in odds to win the NL Cy Young. He’s +185, behind only Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale, who is the +115 favorite. So betting on Skenes now isn’t nearly the value it would’ve been back on May 10 or even a month or so ago. A $100 bet today would profit just $185 ($285 total payout).
Egeland admits Skenes’ speedy run up both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young oddsboards has been challenging for BetMGM’s risk room.
“We have to weigh how much action is coming in due to external factors vs. on-field performance. That makes it difficult from a trading/risk perspective,” Egeland said. “Rookie of the Year is always a tricky thing to trade. Everything is about projections, and that’s especially tough with no major league data and the uncertainty of when players will be on the roster.
“Skenes could be the exact same player, but if he was called up a month later, he wouldn’t be in the Cy Young discussion, and Rookie of the Year would be more competitive.”
Padres vs. Pirates Highlights
Shedeur vs. Skenes
Egeland didn’t have to look far for a comparable betting phenomenon.
“Obviously, there was a ton of hype with Skenes for performance reasons. But there’s the added interest with him as a social media story,” Egeland said. “The best comparison I can think of is Shedeur Sanders to win the Heisman Trophy.”
Early last season, Sanders rocketed up the Heisman Trophy odds board as Colorado Buffaloes quarterback. But Sanders and the Buffaloes tailed off in the second half of the season, as Colorado finished 4-8.
On the flip side, although Pittsburgh is hovering around .500, Skenes has at least kept the Pirates within shouting distance of an NL Wild Card bid.
“We were going to write bets on Skenes regardless, so when he had the hot start, that really intensified,” Egeland said. “The difference between Sanders and Skenes is that Skenes has had sustained success.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers. Follow him on Twitter @PatrickE_Vegas.
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