RJ Young’s Ultimate 134 vs. AP Top 25: Alabama gets the ‘Saban bounce’

With the dawn of a new era of college football that includes the addition of new teams to the four major conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC) — the collapse of another (Pac-12) — and the first year of the extended 12-team College Football Playoff, rankings have taken on new meaning.

Voters are no longer the sole arbiters of who is and who isn’t a national champion. Nor is the now decade-old institution known as the CFP Selection Committee. Now, at least four spots in the 12-team playoff will be decided by a conference championship, while the remaining eight will be decided according to a ranking.

[Related: 2024 college football rankings: RJ Young’s Ultimate 134]

So, with that said, it is fitting that Associated Press poll voters agree with me about who should begin the season as the top-four teams in the country. These four teams – Ohio State, Georgia, Texas and Oregon – also represent the two most powerful conferences in the country. While we disagree on the order, they usually catch up to me. Last year, I ranked Michigan as the No. 1 team in the sport after Week 5 — nine weeks before AP voters and CFP Selection Committee members finally decided to follow suit. And the Wolverines won the national title.

So, after those top-four programs, where do my Ultimate 134 Rankings differ from the AP Top 25 rankings?

I believe Florida State and LSU are underrated in the AP’s preseason poll, while Notre Dame and Alabama are overrated.

I ranked Florida State at No. 5 and Clemson at No. 19, while the AP ranked FSU at No. 10 and Clemson at No. 14. I expect Clemson to lose its season-opener against Georgia. Kirby Smart’s Dawgs have seen a Garrett Riley offense before, and they held it to one score in the worst bowl beating in history — a 65-7 national title beatdown when Riley was the reigning Broyles Award winner at Texas Christian.

A loss for Georgia, though, would upend both of our rankings. For the AP, that would be their preseason No. 1-ranked team falling to a team that isn’t expected to win their conference title, given FSU is ranked ahead of Clemson for both of us.

Meanwhile, Kalen DeBoer received the Nick Saban bump at Alabama, without needing to be Saban. Since 2009, Alabama has always been ranked high entering the season. And the Crimson Tide would always make us right by the end of the season. But that was mostly about Saban and the importance head coaches hold in our sport. In an era marked by change, he and just a handful of others have acted as anchors. 

DeBoer coached Washington to a national title appearance and has won 104 of 116 games he’s served as a head coach in, dating back to 2005. There’s no doubt that he is a winner. There is doubt, from me at least, that his team will be good enough to secure an at-large bid to the playoff.

Programs in Alabama’s conference, including Texas, LSU and Ole Miss, could end up with a better résumé than DeBoer’s Crimson Tide team if they were to lose to Wisconsin on the road in Week 3, or if they don’t look to be in the same class as Georgia when the two powerhouse programs clash in Week 5.

Now, let’s be clear: I didn’t rank Alabama much lower than the AP. I ranked the Crimson Tide at No. 9. I simply want to see more before I rank them ahead of programs like LSU, which I ranked No. 7 — six spots ahead of where the AP has the Tigers.

LSU has a quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, who I believe can sling it. The reason he’s not being talked about the way Miller Moss is at USC might have more to do with Mike Denbrock defecting to Notre Dame rather than Nussmeier’s game. Moss gets the Lincoln Riley bump, which is significant seeing that four of the last five QBs to start for Riley have finished the season as Heisman finalists. But a win against USC at a neutral site could show not just the prowess of LSU, but of the SEC when the time comes to hand out at-large bids for the CFP. If LSU can keep a lid on the end zone — a considerable task against Riley — the AP might catch up to me before Halloween.

Notre Dame at No. 7 looks a lot like wishful thinking. The bet on the Fighting Irish is about combining two people — Denbrock and Riley Leonard — who have been brilliant separately and believing that, together, they can lead Notre Dame to greatness. In my Monique voice, I would like to see it. The Fighting Irish are being positioned as the highest-ranked team outside an automatic qualifying spot, as they refuse to join a conference and have never been made to pay a competitive tax for it.

For me, Notre Dame ranks as a top 25 program. The Fighting Irish ought to beat Texas A&M in their season-opener and won’t face a preseason top 25 team until Nov. 9, when they welcome Florida State to South Bend. Anything short of an undefeated season ought to work against Notre Dame because it won’t play for a conference title. A one-loss Notre Dame team could be on the bubble. Two losses for Notre Dame would be catastrophic.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.

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