Trevor Lawrence 2.0? Arch Manning flashes first-round future

The Texas Longhorns may very well have a 2025 first round pick in starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, but calls for redshirt freshman Arch Manning to replace him will only grow louder after the latter’s scintillating performance in Saturday’s blowout win at home over UTSA. 

Ewers himself was brilliant in guiding Texas to an early 14-0 lead, completing 14 of 16 passes for 185 yards and both scores. He went down with what head coach Steve Sarkisian later characterized as a strained abdomen in the second quarter, however, making this the third consecutive season in which he’s missed time due to an injury. 

[Related: Whether with Ewers or Manning, it’s full speed ahead for Texas]

Once Ewers left, Manning, the former five-star recruit from the legendary family of quarterbacks, came on and threw with the precision that typified the Hall of Fame careers of his uncles Peyton and Eli, connecting on four touchdown passes on just nine completions.

It was the athleticism demonstrated by the prototypically-built 6-foot-4, 225-pounder that might have surprised some onlookers, however.

How big was Arch Manning’s day?

Manning’s first throw — a 19-yard touchdown toss to wideout DeAndre Moore Jr. — came off a beautifully executed bootleg. On his next drive, he scampered for a 67-yard score off of a quarterback keeper — of all things! — following his blocks and evading a hard-charging safety in traffic before pulling away from defenders as he broke into the open field.

It was the type of acceleration scouts have grown accustomed to from quarterbacks in this era of dual-threats at the position, but not from a Manning.

Former Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III certainly was impressed with Manning’s athleticism.

Frankly, it was more reminiscent of his grandfather Archie, the New Orleans Saints great, and father, Cooper, who played wide receiver at Ole Miss (following in Archie’s footsteps) before a diagnosis of spinal stenosis abruptly ended his football career.

Side note: If your memories of the Manning brothers are of heavy-footed pocket passers, let me bring you up to speed on their father and Arch’s grandfather, Archie. Archie Manning played 15 years in the NFL, earning back-to-back Pro Bowl nods (1978-1979) during his 11-year stint with the Saints. He was a creative scrambling quarterback who slithered and scampered for 2,197 rushing yards over his career, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He had much more wiggle than Peyton (667, 1.5 yards per carry) and Eli Manning (567, 1.3).

It is easy to venture into hyperbole with Manning’s performance. In reality, he and his Longhorns pass-catchers were greatly aided by some shoddy tackling and risky blitzes by the visiting Roadrunners, an American Athletic Conference squad currently sitting at 1-2. 

While it is worth noting that the Roadrunners finished last year with nine wins (including a Frisco Bowl victory over Marshall), quite frankly, UTSA was greatly “outmanned” by the Longhorns, a squad that leaped Georgia for No. 1 in the latest AP Poll on Sunday, in part because of the now proven depth Sarkisian boasts at the game’s most important position.

[Related: Texas is No. 1 in AP Top 25 for first time in 16 years]

Manning completed nine of 12 passes for a gaudy 223 yards and the sparkling 4-0 TD to INT rate that powered a 99.9 QB Rating. Ewers, by comparison, threw two touchdowns with an interception in his abbreviated play prior to sustaining his injury, which is not considered serious but is likely to keep him sidelined for at least the Longhorns’ next game, a home game against Louisiana-Monroe (2-0), a Sun Belt team that had the added benefit of having a bye this past weekend.

As such, by the time the Warhawks come to Austin, they will be quite familiar with Manning’s performance.

Where does he need to improve?

Manning’s touchdown tosses will be replayed over and over again, but few besides NFL scouts, future Texas opponents and head coach Steve Sarkisian will likely notice some of the rough patches in his performance that should temper the young signal-caller’s hype — at least somewhat.

While Manning certainly was statistically efficient, there were some misfires on tape, as well. The only two three-and-outs in the Longhorns’ outing against UTSA on Saturday came with Manning at the helm. Further, he showed his inexperience at the line of scrimmage, failing to account for a blitz off the edge on third-and-5 on his third drive, leading to a sack and forcing a punt.

And while his 67-yard scoring jaunt was impressive, no one is going to confuse Manning with Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray. He showed impressive straight-line speed, but he’s not a jitterbug. Manning will need to continue to develop spatial awareness of the pocket and speed up his inner clock as the level of competition increases in the future. 

That said, while Manning was caught by surprise on a few occasions, his raw talent was even more obvious.

With that raw talent, how good can he be?

Like his famous uncles and grandfather, Manning possesses a rifle for a right arm. The ball explodes out of his hand with easy velocity, and he already boasts a lightning-quick release, no doubt the result of a million throws in the backyard with the family.

It was the pillowy soft touch and pristine accuracy on his final throw that was arguably his most impressive of the game, leaving the perfect lasting impression before Texas shifted into clock-killing mode midway through the fourth quarter.

Already up 42-7, Manning served up one more highlight for the Burnt Orange faithful, beautifully lofting the ball into the right corner for a 12-yard touchdown to wideout Johntay Cook II. 

It was the precision of Manning’s pass that deserves special acknowledgment here. The greatest difference between quarterbacks at the collegiate level and NFL, after all, is accuracy.

With one “wow” throw to cap the night, Manning provided evidence that his hype may very well be deserved.

There is only so much that can be gleaned from three quarters of football against an inferior opponent. But, from a size, arm talent, athleticism and composure standpoint, I saw a lot of similarities between Manning and a young Trevor Lawrence at Clemson.

Lawrence, you’ll recall, was a highly celebrated five-star recruit, himself, who had the unenviable task of replacing a legend at Clemson in Deshaun Watson. His raw talent was immediately obvious, however, and he sparked the Tigers to a national title and, of course, eventually earned the No. 1 overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Manning has a long way to go to justify comparisons to Lawrence, his uncles and grandfather or any other star NFL quarterbacks. Given how well Ewers has played against elite competition over his time at Austin, Sarkisian very likely will hand the ball back to his veteran when he’s cleared medically — at least I would. 

But when the spotlight turned to him, Manning shined bright, making it appear that superstardom at both the college and pro level seem inevitable. 

Rob Rang is an NFL Draft analyst for FOX Sports. He has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others. He also works as a scout with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Follow him on Twitter @RobRang.

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