Why John Smoltz is ‘in big-time favor’ of 6-inning minimum for MLB starting pitchers

For the first time in 10 years, we might not see a team win 100 games. 

Is that a good or bad thing for Major League Baseball?

As part of our weekly conversation with Hall of Famer John Smoltz, the MLB on FOX analyst shared his thoughts on the parity in baseball this season, the idea of a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani on triple crown watch and more.

Kavner: MLB is reportedly mulling this concept of a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers in order to try to keep guys healthy. Do you like the idea? Is there anything else you would try to get starting pitchers going deeper in games than what we’ve seen in recent years?

Smoltz: Well, I love any idea that’s going to enhance a different philosophy, because as I’ve talked about many times, this philosophy is not working, just from a health standpoint. It’s not great for the game, either. When you get 10-12 pitchers per game, nobody has a matchup that people are willing to come see anymore. I think we have to get back to creating greatness in our game from the starting pitching standpoint. 

And this is a trainable thing. This is a philosophy that would change if the rules change. Any rule change that you make, nobody has a disadvantage. That’s what I love about it. People are going to complain and whine like babies, because they’re used to having it a certain way. When the sport starts going in a direction that is not a long-term good for the game, that’s when you have to make rule changes to shift it back to the way that you desire for the sport to flourish. 

We’ve seen changes that have happened already, in a positive way. There’s been no negative. Everybody complained right away, and they got over it in five months. So, I am in big-time favor of the six-inning minimum. I think this is not only teachable, this is easy to do. When you ask players to go max effort and there is an injury, I don’t know why anyone’s surprised. It looks good on paper, but it never works physically and it never works long term. This is something no one’s been willing to do in the minor leagues, to prepare a pitcher to go deep into games. And now, if there’s a rule change that enhances this philosophy to be adopted by every team, you’ll see pitching as great as we have it in a longer fashion.

You mentioned how it starts in the minor leagues, where pitchers are being taught to go max effort. Do you think it will take a drastic measure at this point to get that philosophy to change?

It’ll take a while, but it’s not like they’re going to forget how to throw a baseball. They just have to be re-taught that they don’t have to empty the tank every single time. If we have watered-down hitting to a point where a .220 batting average is normal, and nobody is being really dinged for hitting .220, then what’s the difference with a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA, but with more innings? 

If we’re going to get to a point where we really want to change the game for the positive, these changes must take place. The 1.90 ERAs and the 290-300 strikeouts in 180 innings — man, that sounds and looks great, but if that guy can only do that for a couple of years, what are we doing? 

The NFL has done things that have radically changed its sport. The quarterback position is now in a protected spot where you really can’t hit guys the way you used to, because they realized that if you lose the quarterback in the NFL, you lose the NFL. I know a lot of people don’t like it, and the old-timers are frustrated because you can’t hit them a certain way anymore, but the NFL is going to take care of the NFL, and baseball has to start looking at this in the same realm and find a way to keep these pitchers healthier.

Speaking of watered-down offense, we’ve only had one hitting triple crown in the last 50 years. This year, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Marcell Ozuna are all within reach. What do you make of three hitters challenging for this rare feat at the same time?

I know it’s not a sexy thing anymore because people have dumbed it down, but I still think it’s one of the greatest accomplishments any hitter can can be a part of. And I think when you think about the whole league and the opportunities that each individual has to ruin a triple crown season, you’re talking about a ton of people, and to be in an elite company where you have three categories that I still regard as very important, I think it’s phenomenal. 

Ozuna is having that year where not only is he going to get MVP votes, but he’s single-handedly kept that team afloat for the longest time. This Braves team would not be anywhere near where they are with all the injuries they’ve had. Ohtani has slowed down a little bit on the average department but picked it up with the stolen bases, and he’s having a magical year. So, I root for a triple crown race. I think it’s great. And I laugh at everybody who kind of downplays it because they’re in an analytical position that doesn’t think these things matter. Whenever you have something that in the history of the game is not done very often, I think it’s great, and that’s what we have this year.

There are no teams currently on pace for 100 wins. Do you think this amount of parity is ultimately a good or bad thing for the game?

I personally think it’s great. I’ve never understood the NBA model, where there are like four super teams. I’ve never understood how people would think that’s good. Baseball has shown over the past 25 years that you could have multiple different champions, and it’s rare for people to win more than one, with a couple of exceptions.

Where you’re going to get some debate is when you have teams that might be under .500 that make the playoffs. That’s where it might get a little bit muddy, especially if those teams were to go on in advance and maybe win a World Series. But I still think that baseball is showing in 162 games what can happen if you do things the right way and if you make certain trades. So, I personally think it’s good.

You played for some pretty good Braves teams that won more than 100 games and some division winners that won as few as 88. As a player trying to lock in, was it easier to focus and play well when you had another team breathing down your neck down the stretch, or when you had the division wrapped up early and could just think about getting ready for October?

It changes from year to year. If you’ve got a team kind of banged up and you got it wrapped up, then it’s great. But then sometimes you get to the postseason and you’re not clicking. People will say it’s best to get in on the last day and just keep riding that momentum. But then you get pretty stressed and tired. I’ve always been an advocate that if you can wrap it up in the last week, that’s great, but if you wrapped it up with three weeks to go, then you’re playing some mind games, and your manager’s got to make sure you’re on alert so your body knows, your brain knows. 

It’s just human nature that if you’re not playing for anything, really, including home field advantage, then it’s best to play a team playing for something. If you’re playing spoiler and you’re out of the postseason, that’s your playoffs. But you never want to be on the opposite side of getting spoiled by somebody because they have nothing to play for.

For the Baltimore Orioles, which just went to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, do you think being in this tight division race with the New York Yankees will ultimately benefit them?

I think so. They’re going through the gauntlet right now. They have gone through a schedule that is so incredibly tough, and they’re trying to survive that right now. I think every game in their last 10 or 12 games has been against a playoff team, and I think it’ll serve the Orioles better. But they’ve had so many injuries, I don’t even know how they’ve managed it so far to this point. So, give them credit for learning from last year to really persevere through this really tough time, not only injury-wise, but schedule-wise.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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