Why the NFL doesn’t have to worry about the Patriots anytime soon

Bill Belichick never wanted the New England Patriots to look like this.

The former coach and owner Robert Kraft always seemed to have a coaching succession plan, from Josh McDaniels to Jerod Mayo. The Patriots even seemed to try to have a succession plan in place for Tom Brady at quarterback, from Matt Cassel to Kevin O’Connell to Ryan Mallett to Jimmy Garoppolo to Jacoby Brissett to Jarrett Stidham.

It was clear that Belichick never wanted the Patriots to find the NFL’s basement — which the organization is no stranger to. It’s easy to forget, but New England’s history wasn’t pretty prior to the arrival of Belichick and Brady.

The organization’s current state isn’t a thing of beauty either.

At a time when quarterbacks and receivers are the most influential and best-paid players in the NFL, New England has no certainty at either position.

They’re absolutely making a big effort to shore up the quarterback spot. This offseason, the team signed the always-competent Brissett and drafted Drake Maye at third overall in an effort to reboot their quarterback room from the Mac Jones era. It’s possible — given the state of the offensive line and the receiver position — that Maye won’t start until 2025. But offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has just the offense for Maye, based on a heavy run game and a vertical passing attack out of play-action. It’s clear New England has a plan to develop Maye into a scheme that’s tailor-made to fit his skills.

And for what it’s worth, the Patriots are also making a big effort to shore up the receiver spot. This year, they drafted Ja’Lynn Polk in Round 2 and Javon Baker in Round 4. New England retained Kendrick Bourne, who was one of their top options despite a lot of wrong-place, wrong-time (with ending up in the coach’s doghouse and an injury). 

The problem, though, is that the Patriots have also gone after three top-tier receivers in the past two years — and they’ve whiffed every time.

After New England met with DeAndre Hopkins in 2023, the team felt it had a real shot to sign him, according to sources close to the situation. But, he chose the Tennessee Titans.

In 2024, the Patriots were aggressive in offering free-agent receiver Calvin Ridley a top-of-market deal. And dangit, those Titans foiled New England’s efforts again. Ridley took Tennessee’s offer, reportedly $1 million more per year.

And now, 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk appears to be the third receiver to say, “Thanks, no thanks,” to the Patriots, even with the Patriots putting $32 million per year on the table, according to ESPN’s Mike Reiss.

With the star wideout refusing to practice during training camp amid a contract dispute, Aiyuk and the 49ers have opened up trade talks. San Francisco has fielded strong offers from the Pittsburgh Steelers, Patriots and Cleveland Browns. Though New England was competitive — with both its offer to the 49ers and Aiyuk — the Patriots elected to bow out, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Though, that might have been a diplomatic way of describing the situation. Aiyuk made it clear he didn’t want to go to New England, which was why the Patriots bowed out, according to NBC Sports Bay Area.

Credit to Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf for getting back out there on all the apps and swiping right — credit to Wolf for being ready to get hurt again.

But the news around Aiyuk highlights just how powerless the Patriots are.

And, to be clear, this isn’t necessarily on Wolf. It started under Belichick. As I noted, Hopkins rebuked New England last year. Brady was the guy receivers wanted to play for. He was the reason Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman and so many others produced career-best clips. Of course, Belichick refused to pay top dollar for wideouts and often left Brady without much of an arsenal. But Brady did get players like Antonio Brown and Chad Ochocino to take a chance on New England. (Obviously both signings were disasters — for very different reasons.)

The glory days are over in New England.

The NFL’s newest dynasty, the Chiefs, are pursuing back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl wins. The Patriots, meanwhile, are in danger of spending back-to-back-to-back seasons under .500. They were 3-14 last season and 8-9 in 2022. Given the strength of the AFC East — and New England’s schedule, one of the toughest in the NFL — there isn’t a whole lot of optimism that the Patriots are going to start this new era in a better place than where Belichick left it.

These star receivers have spoken, after all.

The Patriots are a black hole for offense. They have been for years. And offense is more important than it has ever been.

But, yes, let’s talk about the defense. Because those who remain optimistic about the Patriots’ chances see a way for New England to win: 1) elite defense and 2) a QB who can protect the football (Brissett).

So let’s start with Item 1. As good as the Patriots defense was last year, are we so sure it will be at the same caliber this year? Belichick isn’t there anymore, and maybe we’ve come to underrate the greatest coach of all time — and, in particular, the greatest defensive mind of all time. 

Without Belichick, the defense won’t be the same. It’s that simple. 

Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez are back from injury, which will help. But how much? Mayo might be a great defensive coach, but it’s his first year in the head-coaching role — along with first-year defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington — and it’s natural for rookies to make mistakes. That’s why they’re not planning on starting Maye, after all.

OK, so that segues into Item 2. Brissett’s interception percentage is consistently low when he’s a starter — from 1.3% to 1.6% in the seasons when he started five or more games. As a point of comparison, Brady finished at 1.8% in his career. Mac Jones’ interception percentage was 2.5% in his first two years before spiking to 3.5% in his final season. With the current state of the offensive line, it’s fair to wonder whether Brissett will be able to keep that number low — while also mitigating fumbles.

But if the Patriots defense is elite again and Brissett protects the ball, are we so sure that’s a recipe for success against one the NFL’s strongest schedules?

The Patriots’ vaunted defense allowed 18.9 points per game last season. If New England is going to have a good year, it will need to put up around 20 points per game. Behind this offensive line, it’s not easy to see the offense moving the ball consistently — no matter how much the team trusts (and how much it spent on) running back Rhamondre Stevenson.

The Patriots aren’t likely to be good this year. They’re not likely to be the 2024 version of the 2023 Texans. New England is most likely to end up near the top of the draft, as many are predicting. And it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because there’s so little optimism about what’s happening in New England, the top offensive players are steering clear of the Patriots. We’ve seen receiver after receiver turn them down, even when the money is better than anywhere else.

This isn’t to say that the Patriots are suddenly going to turn into the Buffalo Bills from 2000 and to 2016. Or the Jets from 1970 to 1980. Or the Broncos from 2016 to present. Those teams had their elite quarterbacks and their Super Bowl appearances (in some cases wins) and playoff wins. But then they fell into mediocrity (or worse).

I will say, though, that the Patriots are in danger of that.

The days of the Big Bad Patriots are over. The NFL doesn’t have to worry about New England. Not anytime soon.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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