Will Aaron Judge hit 500 home runs? Handicapping 18 players’ chances

Last Wednesday, Aaron Judge crushed his 300th career home run in fewer at-bats than anyone in MLB history, and it prompted teammate Juan Soto to say this: “I hope he breaks the home run record.” 

While Judge will finish this season more than 400 home runs behind Barry Bonds’ record 762, the Yankees slugger’s latest feat got us thinking about who has a realistic shot of hitting even 500 homers.

Reaching the milestone used to ensure election to the Hall of Fame, as only 28 players are in the 500 home run club. Miguel Cabrera in 2021 was the last hitter to reach the vaunted mark, but just one current slugger has eclipsed 380 home runs. 

So, we examined 18 active power hitters who belong in the conversation for 500 and handicapped their chances.

LIKELY

Aaron Judge (32 years old): 301 HRs
Bryce Harper (31): 332 HRs
Juan Soto (25): 194 HRs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (25): 155 HRs

We can move on from the Judge discussion pretty quickly here. He’s so likely to join the 500 club that it’s not out of the realm of possibility to start considering him for the 600 club. As far as the remaining trio in this group, Harper is still younger than we think because of how long he’s been around — excuse me, it’s already his sixth season in Philly?! — so he’s got plenty of time to crush the 160-plus homers needed to reach 500. He’s mashing at a clip of 33 homers per year (162-game average), so he could potentially eclipse the mark by the 2030 season. At this point, it would be quite silly to bet against Harper.

Speaking of probability, Soto’s age and durability are his best assets in the chase for 500. He’s six home runs from 200 and doesn’t turn 26 until late October. He also has arguably the best plate discipline among any slugger on this list. It’s remarkable to think the generational star perhaps hasn’t entered his prime. After he settles on a long-term home in free agency, Soto might just raise his level and put up monster seasons that we haven’t even seen yet. 

My prediction that Guerrero Jr. will join the 500 club is probably the spiciest take on this list. Guerrero, like Soto, is only 25 years old and has time on his side. Perhaps it’s recency bias, but Guerrero is back to being a superstar and showing us that 2023 was more of an exception rather than a downward trend. Sure, he would need to start stringing together consecutive seasons slugging .500, but his pure power-hitting ability should allow him to do it more consistently. It’s not a stretch to think Soto and Guerrero could be racing toward 500 together. 

IF HEALTH PERMITS

Giancarlo Stanton (34): 422 career HRs
Mike Trout (33): 378 career HRs
Shohei Ohtani (30): 210 career HRs

These three sluggers would be promoted to the category of “likely” if it wasn’t for their injury history and, in Ohtani’s case, two-way responsibilities. Ohtani’s durability will always be in question so long as he continues pitching and hitting, and he would need to stay on the field and average 40 home runs for the next seven years to even come close to 500. It’s dicey. The same goes for Trout, who many expected to land in the 500 HR club, but that seems doubtful now, given his uptick of stints on the injured list. 

Out of this trio, Stanton is best positioned to reach that elusive 500 mark, and though he’s one of the oldest players on this list, he’s only 78 dingers away. There are three more years left on his contract to motivate him to get it done, which would require roughly 25 home runs per season. That’s a no-brainer for a healthy Stanton — even though that’s far from a guarantee for a slugger who is frequently running into hamstring injuries that rob him of precious at-bats.

50/50

Manny Machado (32): 332 career HRs
Pete Alonso (29): 219 career HRs
Rafael Devers (27): 199 career HRs
Yordan Álvarez (27): 154 career HRs
Ronald Acuña Jr. (26): 165 career HRs
Fernando Tatis Jr. (25): 120 career HRs

Machado is only three months older than Harper, and they’re essentially tied on the career home run list. While Harper is more of a pure power hitter and seems likelier than Machado to hit the 500 mark, the Padres third baseman could be a sneaky pick to join the club thanks to his consistency year after year. Machado, like others in this category, would need to keep up that consistency for roughly seven more seasons, and it’s tough to tell how durable he’ll be into his mid-30s.

Since Tatís cranked 42 homers in 2022, and he’s still young enough, he deserves to still be in the conversation for 500 dingers — albeit he will need to stay on the field for several consecutive seasons to remain a candidate. In Álvarez’s case, consider this: He already has 44 more home runs than Judge did upon completing his age-27 season. The Astros slugger has time on his side, is averaging 42 home runs per 162 games, and remains one of the top home run hitters in the game since his 2019 debut.

Alonso also arrived in 2019 and is excellent at staying on the field, but his age is working against him. The Mets slugger got a later start than other 500-hopefuls, and though he still holds the MLB lead for homers since debuting, he’s already on the cusp of his age-30 season and a drop-off in power could be on the horizon. With Devers, he will have crossed the 200-homer mark before his age-27 season is over, but he has yet to eclipse 40 homers in a season, and that makes him less of a candidate for the five-hundo mark than some other hitters in this category.

UNLIKELY

Paul Goldschmidt (36): 359 career HRs
Freddie Freeman (34): 338 career HRs
Nolan Arenado (33): 338 career HRs
Kyle Schwarber (31): 274 career HRs
Matt Olson (30): 251 career HRs

These are all long shots due to age, potential power reductions, durability, and a whole host of other factors that make joining the 500-homer club such a challenge. Goldschmidt, Freeman and Arenado can all but wave goodbye to any chance, even an outside one, that they’ll crank 150ish more homers before their careers are over. Sadly, that age-impacted rate of decline is no joke.

With Schwarber, it depends on how much of his power diminishes in his early/mid-30s — akin to what we’re currently seeing from Arenado, as well as Goldschmidt for the past two years in what appears to be the tail end of his career. Olson’s 54-homer campaign last year was outrageous, no doubt, but he’s only halfway to 500. With such a long way and already 30 years old, the slugger might have to settle for 2023 home run champion, as well as breaking the Braves’ single-season record, as his power-hitting ceiling.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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